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000
FXUS65 KABQ 102037
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
237 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A warming and drying trend will persist through Friday, with high
temperatures reaching well above normal by the end of the week.
Winds will strengthen at the close of the work week, becoming
widespread breezy to locally windy on Friday, and continuing to be
breezy through the weekend. An incoming disturbance will allow winds
to increase further on Monday areawide alongside cooler temperatures
and a chance for mountain snow in the extreme northern high terrain.
Breezy to windy conditions may persist through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures, albeit a little below normal
for mid-April prevail over much of New Mexico.  Cumulus cloud cover
is increasing over the NE quarter of NM along and behind a wind-
shift line which is pushing in a little ahead of schedule.  There is
little-to-no cold air advection behind this boundary, however, so
hard-pressed to call it a "true" back-door cold front.  NNE winds
are gusting up to 20-25mph at Raton, Taos, and Santa Fe
currently. Short-range model indicates that this boundary may slip
back eastward (temporarily) as the afternoon wears on, as the
more northwesterly flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Later
tonight into early tomorrow morning, this boundary should push up
to the central mountain chain again and onward through gaps,
creating a modest east canyon wind for ABQ with a few gusts up to
25-30mph. This should not last long, though, as S/SW winds mix
back down by mid-day on Thursday.

Otherwise, a somewhat chilly night is in store, with low
temperatures near to slightly above normal, except 5 to 8 degrees F
below normal across the eastern plains. Blended in some NBM 25th
percentiles for morning lows to bring forecast more in line with MOS
guidance, especially for the ABQ metro and northern valleys such as
Angel Fire. MAV guidance hinting at a possible return of localized
mist around Roswell early in the morning.  Brief dense fog did occur
in the Pecos River valley of Chaves County this morning, but
guidance other than the MAV (including SREF probabilities) is
unenthusiastic.

Warming trend with sunny skies continues into Thursday as upper
ridge axis lies just upstream over AZ.  Temperatures climb to near
normal along and west of the central mountains.  Thursday highs max
out just a couple degrees below normal over eastern NM where recent
rains keep the soil more moist. A somewhat milder night is expected
as S/SW breezes remain elevated ahead of an approaching short-wave
trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Axis of the upper level ridge will slide across New Mexico Friday,
allowing daytime temperatures to climb above 5F to 10F warmer than
Thursday`s readings areawide. A lee-side sfc low will deepen in
the presence of deep-layer mixing, creating breezy to locally
windy conditions across northern and central NM in the afternoon.
The upper ridge broadens as it scoots east, allowing another
weaker ridge to take its place on Saturday. This will let the
warming trend continue with somewhat less breezy conditions.
Meanwhile, a potent upper low cruising down the coast of CA will
begin to push inland, starting on its course to the Intermountain
West on Sunday. Significant departures exist between models at
this juncture, with the GFS suggesting a more southern track,
while the ECMWF and CMC take the system further to our north. The
track would significantly influence the amplitude of winds on
Monday, with the more northern track leading to more widespread
coverage of windy to very windy conditions. Given the GFS`s
lackluster run-to-run consistency and the stronger agreement
between the ECMWF and CMC, did opt to blend winds more in favor
with the northern solution. While the system quickly exits into
the Great Plains Tuesday, a tight H5 pressure gradient will remain
as strong disturbances oscillate across the northern CONUS and
CAN. Windy conditions will possibly persist through midweek
amongst dry conditions and a slow warmup.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

High confidence (90%) in VFR prevailing at all TAF sites, except
KROW, where confidence is slightly lower. Locally dense fog
formed in the Pecos River valley early this morning and affected
the terminal through 15-16Z. Some of the short-term model guidance
hints this could happen again early Thursday morning. Otherwise,
warming temperatures will contribute to mixdown of NW breezes west
of the central mountain chain. Meanwhile, a wind shift line
(lacking enough temperature change to call a back-door cold
front) has already nudged past KRTN and KSKX. As a result, modest
east- canyon winds are expected at KABQ to develop at KABQ by
early-mid Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST...

A ridge of high pressure will cross with warming temperatures and
dry weather through Thursday.  A gusty backdoor front (though with
little temperature change) has arrived into NE NM early this
afternoon.  Though it will likely oscillate/mix back eastward at
times for the next 6-12 hours, eventually it will push up against
the east slopes of the central mountain chain tonight, pushing
through the mountain gaps.  A few hours of elevated fire weather
conditions may occur Thursday afternoon in the NE Highlands as 20-
ft. SSW winds increase to 15-20mph and RH falls to 15-20%.  However,
duration will be short and fuel state is not particularly receptive.

The potential exists for critical fire weather conditions across
much of the forecast area on Friday as south and southwest winds
strengthen in response to a weak upper level trough approaching from
the southwest.  Gusts Friday afternoon should generally vary around
30-40 mph as humidities drop mostly between 8-14 percent. At this
time, the most widespread critical conditions on Friday are expected
across the Middle Rio Grande Valley, Sandia and Manzano Mountains
(below snowpack), the Northeast Highlands, and the Northeast Plains.
A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for these areas from 12 Noon
to 8 PM MDT on Friday.

In the wake of the upper trough, southwest winds are forecast to
weaken to some extent Saturday and Sunday while remaining gusty
enough for locally critical fire weather conditions in many
locations, especially when combined with minimum RH values falling
into the single digits (away from the mountain peaks). More
widespread critical fire weather conditions appear increasingly
likely below snowpack on Monday, particularly in the RGV and east of
the central mountains, as a storm system crossing the central
Rockies steers the jetstream over NM with 20-foot winds gusting 40-
50 mph. A Pacific cold front crossing western areas Monday provides
some cooling, but little in the way of moistening. A broad low
pressure system dropping into the northwest US will then steer
another speed max in the polar jet over the area from the west on
Tuesday, keeping westerly surface wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range
over NM with additional fire weather concerns central and east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  34  70  36  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  25  67  28  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  30  65  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  28  70  31  76 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  30  66  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  28  70  31  76 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  31  69  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  38  69  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  33  67  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  30  75  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  43  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  25  61  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  37  64  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  33  64  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  36  59  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  22  55  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  19  54  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  26  65  29  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  28  63  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  33  71  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  35  65  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  34  68  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  70  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  40  72  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  39  74  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  72  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  34  75  37  82 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  39  73  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  37  74  37  81 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  39  73  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  35  74  38  81 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  41  68  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  40  72  40  79 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  41  78  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  37  62  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  37  66  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  32  67  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  27  70  31  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  30  64  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  33  67  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  33  67  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  40  71  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  37  65  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  27  61  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  27  67  30  76 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  28  67  30  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  30  65  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  34  65  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  31  65  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  35  72  37  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  33  70  34  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  34  70  38  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  38  70  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  35  72  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  35  70  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  40  78  42  84 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  37  72  40  79 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  36  75  41  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NMZ104-106-123>125.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...53