382
FXUS65 KABQ 120555
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1155 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Added patchy fog to the forecast along the eastern border from
Clayton southward to Roosevelt County late tonight until mid
morning Sunday in accordance with recent MOS trends. Very high
humidity recovery is forecast there tonight. Patchy fog could
extend as far west as Clines Corners, but west and northwest winds
are forecast there, which is not optimal for Clines Corners to
have fog. 44

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

The combination of an upper level disturbance and a backdoor cold
front will bring a round of showers and storms to central and
eastern NM through tonight, some of which may become strong to
severe. Another round of showers and storms is forecast Sunday
afternoon across north central and northeast NM as the disturbance
moves east across the area. A warming and drying trend is
forecast early week, but chances for showers and storms will ramp
up again Wednesday and Thursday as another disturbance moves east
across the region. A renewed warming and drying trend will begin
Friday and continue into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

The upper low is currently moving east toward the Four Corners per
the latest water vapor satellite imagery and is interacting with
low level southeast flow behind the backdoor front to provide a
favorable shear environment for a round of strong to severe
storms this afternoon, despite unfavorable instability. Latest
CAMs show a continued northeast progression of storms with
expansion of coverage going into the evening hours across
northeast NM. Areas along/north of I-40 will be favored later
today and this evening for strong to severe storms producing
locally heavy downpours, hail and occasional lightning. There is
an enhanced threat for flooding on the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon
burn scar late this afternoon and evening with these storms,
especially considering the 0.10-0.40" that fell on the scar
overnight through this morning.

The upper low will continue east across southern CO and northern
NM tonight through Sunday and will bring another round of
convection to north central/northeast NM after some daytime
heating. However, the shear environment will be minimal,
especially compared to today`s, so any thunderstorms that develop
Sunday will likely be garden-variety.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Weak ridging will follow behind the departing upper low on
Mon/Tue, bringing a warming/drying trend. Daytime temperatures
should be back above normal most areas by Tuesday. Sufficient
moisture will linger on Mon/Tue for isolated to scattered daytime
heating triggered showers and storms, mainly over the mountains.
The combination of an approaching northern stream trough and an
approaching weak Pacific low will bring sufficient forcing and a
bump in PWATs for an increase precipitation chances Wed/Thu. This
setup will likely be wetter for areas along/east of the central
mountain chain as the northern stream trough brings a backdoor
front to aide in forcing. An upper level ridge will follow the
departing troughs on Fri/Sat, bringing a renewed warming/drying
trend with temperatures rising back above normal areawide by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Bands of showers and thunderstorms in eastern NM will continue to
weaken as they shift east into TX overnight. Areas of low clouds
along with patchy fog will produce MVFR and localized IFR
conditions east of the central mountain chain overnight and into
Sunday morning. The low clouds will retreat from the west, ending
on the far eastern plains by late morning. Sunday afternoon,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the northern
mountains during the late morning, spreading east and southward
over northeast NM during the afternoon and early evening. A few
showers will linger into Sunday night over the northern mountains,
otherwise VFR conditions return areawide Sunday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next
seven days. The combination of an upper level low and backdoor
front will bring good chances for wetting storms to northern and
eastern NM through tonight. Another round of wetting storms is
forecast Sunday across north central and northeast areas as the
upper low exits to the east. An upper level ridge will bring hot,
dry and unstable conditions Mon/Tue, with low chances for wetting
rain over the mountains. An upper level trough will bring back
good chances for wetting storms Wed/Thu, followed by a warming and
drying trend that will bring back hot, dry and unstable conditions
by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  71  40  73  41 /  30  10  10   0
Dulce...........................  60  31  65  32 /  90  20  40  10
Cuba............................  66  35  65  37 /  70  20  20   5
Gallup..........................  69  33  71  34 /   5  10  10   0
El Morro........................  63  34  67  38 /   5   5  10   0
Grants..........................  69  33  70  34 /  10   5  10   0
Quemado.........................  69  36  69  38 /   0   0  10   0
Magdalena.......................  74  42  70  45 /  20   0  10   0
Datil...........................  70  37  67  41 /   5   0  10   0
Reserve.........................  73  33  74  35 /   0   0   5   0
Glenwood........................  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  50  30  58  31 /  90  30  60  30
Los Alamos......................  53  41  62  44 /  80  50  30  10
Pecos...........................  49  37  62  38 /  90  60  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  55  36  56  37 /  90  60  50  20
Red River.......................  48  29  50  30 /  90  70  60  20
Angel Fire......................  53  28  54  28 /  80  70  50  20
Taos............................  61  32  61  31 /  80  60  40  20
Mora............................  49  33  60  35 /  90  70  40  10
Espanola........................  64  41  68  42 /  80  60  30  10
Santa Fe........................  56  41  63  43 /  80  50  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  65  40  67  41 /  80  40  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  47  71  50 /  70  30  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  72  46  73  48 /  60  20  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  72  45  75  47 /  50  20  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  46  73  48 /  60  20  10   5
Belen...........................  78  43  77  44 /  40  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  71  45  73  47 /  70  30  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  75  42  76  43 /  50  10  10   5
Corrales........................  69  45  74  46 /  60  20  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  75  43  76  43 /  50  10  10   0
Placitas........................  63  45  69  47 /  70  30  20   5
Rio Rancho......................  68  46  73  47 /  60  20  10   0
Socorro.........................  86  48  80  49 /  10   5  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  41  64  44 /  80  30  20   5
Tijeras.........................  62  42  67  44 /  70  30  10   5
Edgewood........................  58  39  67  41 /  80  30  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  65  36  69  36 /  70  30  10   5
Clines Corners..................  53  38  64  38 /  80  50  10   5
Mountainair.....................  73  40  68  42 /  50  10  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  73  40  69  41 /  40  10  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  47  74  49 /  30  10   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  70  43  67  45 /  40  20   5   0
Capulin.........................  54  38  60  40 /  90  80  70  20
Raton...........................  50  38  64  39 /  90  70  60  20
Springer........................  51  38  66  39 /  90  70  40  10
Las Vegas.......................  48  36  64  38 /  90  70  30  10
Clayton.........................  62  46  69  47 /  80  80  60  20
Roy.............................  51  43  67  44 /  90  90  40  10
Conchas.........................  59  50  75  47 /  90  80  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  59  47  72  45 /  80  70  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  61  50  77  46 /  80  70  20   5
Clovis..........................  60  53  79  50 /  80  60  20   5
Portales........................  60  53  80  49 /  80  60  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  52  78  47 /  80  50  10   0
Roswell.........................  79  56  86  54 /  50  20   0   0
Picacho.........................  71  46  78  48 /  40  20   0   0
Elk.............................  76  45  75  47 /  30  20   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...33