Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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Spot Forecast for Crystal Springs RX...SD GFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
508 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 CDT on May 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...With a stated ignition time of midnight, conditions
should be rather tranquil under surface high pressure`s
influence. A clear sky and light winds overnight will become
plentiful sunshine and a south wind of 10 to 15 mph on Sunday.
Still dealing with a relatively dry airmass on Sunday, despite the
south wind, so afternoon relative humidity will have a chance to
dip down to as low as 40 percent. After 7 PM CDT Sunday, be aware
that the south wind is going to pick up steam, potentially
reaching 20 mph sustained, with gusts to 25 mph or greater. Even
stronger south to southeast winds are expected for Monday.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph overnight becoming
                    light, then becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   3   3   3   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............43  42  40  39  38  38
RH..............73  76  82  82  85  85
20 FT wind dir..NW  VRB VRB SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   3   3   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.7   8   8   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-5000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 16 mph increasing to around 18 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (76600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 (very low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  39  44  50  54  57  59  62  63  64  65  65
RH..............85  82  70  56  50  47  45  43  43  41  40  41
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.8   8   9   10  12  14  15  16  17  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.3 0.4 1.3 2.8 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......500-3900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (58600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (8000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   3   6   8   11  13  16  18  23  27  32  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............65  64  60  56  54  52  51  51  50  49  48  48
RH..............41  43  49  57  64  69  71  71  74  80  83  83
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  13  13  13  14  15  15  16  17  17
20 FT wind gust.17  18  18  18  20  21  21  22  23  24  25  26
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 2.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Smoke Dispersal.FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................4 percent increasing to 47 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Windy. Southeast winds 18 to 26 mph with gusts
                    to around 39 mph increasing to 28 to 31 mph
                    with gusts to around 47 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-3400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 22 to 29 mph increasing to southeast 32
                    to 39 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (108400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to good (96300 knot-ft)
                    early in the morning increasing to very good
                    (113500 knot-ft) in the afternoon late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........41  45  53  62  70  74  78  82  83  83  84  85
Weather cov.....                            LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  60  60  60  60  60
Temp............48  50  52  56  59  62  65  67  67  68  68  68
RH..............86  80  80  72  69  65  60  59  61  61  61  61
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..18  20  21  23  25  26  28  29  30  30  31  30
20 FT wind gust.28  29  31  35  37  39  41  43  44  46  47  47
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.0
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD GD

$$
Forecaster...Dorn
Requested by...Owen McElroy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413163.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Owen.mcelroy@state.sd.us