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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
814 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
This morning`s front is forecast to lift back north as a warm
front late tonight into Wednesday. Another front crosses the
area Thursday with a stronger cold front then expected by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...

The latest WX analysis indicates a closed upper low spinning
across eastern South Dakota/SW Minnesota, with an upper level
ridge from the southern Appalachians into the Great Lakes. Sfc
high pressure centered near Hudson Bay extends SE into the local
area with a frontal boundary nearly stationary to our south
across southern NC. Other than high clouds, the sky is mostly
clear this evening, with a rather dry airmass, especially closer
the coast near the sfc ridge (dew pts in the 30s to lower 40s).
Temperatures have dropped off into the mid/upper 50s closer to
the coast, with 60s prevailing farther inland.

Overnight, as the boundary slowly begins to lift back N as a
warm front, expect to see clouds lower/thicken with the sky
becoming mostly cloudy towards sunrise. Dew pts will rise
overnight, especially across the SE, but fog is not expected. A
few spotty light showers will be possible, mainly over the NW
zones after ~09Z/5am but PoPs are 20% or less. Lows tonight
will fall mainly into the low and mid 50s, with a few upper 40s
possible over the eastern shore and interior SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

The front lifts NE through the area on Wednesday, bringing an
increase in cloud cover and a chance for showers, primarily
during the afternoon and evening. Highs will climb into the
upper 70s and low 80s SW of I-64. The front will slow/stall to
the NE of 64 which will keep highs in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees. Some instability is noted on forecast soundings during
the evening hours so have added a slight chance of thunder to
the weather grids. Low temps will be a few degrees warmer with
upper 50s to low 60s forecast.

Warm temperatures return for Thursday with a weak cold front moving
through in the afternoon. Most guidance keeps the local area dry.
Temps range from the mid 80s across the SW to the 70s for the
immediate coast and Eastern Shore. Lows Thursday night will mostly
be in the 50s with a few upper 40s possible for the MD Eastern
Shore. A stronger front approaches the region on Friday with
increasing chances for showers across the west in the afternoon.
Will keep a mention of thunder in the forecast as well. High temps
will again be warmest across the SW counties and coolest NE, ranging
from the mid to upper 70s to the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

A stronger cold front is progged to approach from the NW Fri night
and the 12z/16 global models now all show the front crossing the
area early in the day on Saturday. Shower chances increase Friday
evening ahead of the front but remain below 50%. Guidance has
trended downward with respect to PoPs on Saturday with most areas
now 20% or less. With the earlier frontal passage timing, any
mention of thunder has been removed for the area Saturday. Temps on
Saturday will range from the upper 60s for the Eastern Shore to he
low and mid 70s elsewhere. It will be much cooler behind the front
on Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the
40s. In addition, a southern stream low pressure system may bring
additional rain to the region during this time (highest PoPs are in
SE VA/NE NC)...although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding this feature. Otherwise, high pressure slowly builds in
from the NW into early next week. Warming trend for Tuesday with
highs back into the low 70a away from the water.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through most of the
overnight period with just increasing high clouds and light
winds. Cloud bases lower towards sunrise Wed, with the best
chance for some MVFR CIGs across SE VA/NE NC terminals (though
rain chances are minimal during this period). Winds will mostly
be from the SE to SSW on Wednesday at ~10kt, with the best
shower chances later Wed aftn across northern portions of the
FA. It will mostly be VFR except on the eastern shore where
flight restrictions become more probable after 21Z.

Outlook: Shower chances continue Wednesday night as that
frontal boundary continues to move north before stalling in the
vicinity of the eastern shore. MVFR to brief IFR flight
restrictions possible in SHRA and isolated TSRA Wed evening,
then mainly VFR overnight/early Thu except for lingering flight
restrictions at SBY. Drier conditions move in for most of
Thursday through Friday morning. Low pressure ANd a cold front
will bring another chance for showers and flight restrictions
later Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

NE winds have decreased to generally 10 kt or less across the waters
as high pressure builds overhead. The high will shift offshore by
this evening allowing winds to turn SE into Wednesday. Winds turn
southerly at 10 to 15 kt by Wed evening as a frontal boundary just
south of the area moves back north. Weak low pressure moves across
the waters Thu allowing winds to turn north to northeast by Thu
afternoon. This low is forecast to deepen slightly just offshore of
the Delmarva late Thursday into Thursday night, which will allow N-
NE winds to increase to 15 kt across the waters. Will keep
conditions below small craft advisory criteria for now as the low is
expected to stay far enough offshore to limit SCA conditions. NE
winds will continue Friday into Saturday although they will
gradually diminish as the low weakens just offshore and high
pressure builds in.

Waves generally 2 ft or less in the bay through the week (except
building to up to 3 feet at the entrance of the bay by Friday).
Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 ft by Friday over the
ocean.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...LKB/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MRD