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000
FXUS61 KALY 210518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
118 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier weather will return for Sunday and Monday,
with a good deal of sun each day and breezy conditions. Milder
temperatures will briefly return for Tuesday before another
front returns chilly weather to the region for the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 118 AM EDT...A broad upper level trough is situated over
the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, high pressure is
located southwest of the area over the eastern Ohio Valley and
northern mid Atlantic States.

IR satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies over the area.
Some stratocu thanks to lake moisture can be seen west of the
area over western and central NY, but satellite trends keep the
majority of these clouds away from our area. A few spotty clouds
can be seen over the Adirondacks and Greens, but most areas are
mostly clear and it will continue to remain that way through the
rest of the overnight hours. With no large-scale forcing in
place, no precip is expected overnight.

Although it was fairly breezy on Saturday evening, winds have
decreased across the region thanks to nocturnal effects. Still,
winds have not gone completely calm, so a light breeze can
still be expected for most areas. With the light breeze and
fairly dry dewpoints, no radiational fog is expected overnight.

Lows will be chilly tonight, with min temps ranging from the mid
20s in the high terrain to the mid 30s in valley areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northern stream upper energy tracks out of Canada with an
associated reinforcing cold front and deeper cold advection
Sunday into Monday. West to northwest winds will be breezy
through Monday and due to a lack of moisture, there should just
be some intervals of clouds Sunday and lots of sun Monday.

Upper energy lifts north into Canada and as upper heights rise
in our region, warm advection occurs Tuesday. Some high clouds
could spread into our region Tuesday well ahead of the next
upper energy approaching from the west.

Highs Sunday in the 50s with 40s in higher terrain. Highs Monday
in the 50s to near 60 with 40s to near 50 in higher terrain.
Highs Tuesday in the 60s with mid to upper 50s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong upper energy tracks into the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday and there are some considerable differences in sources
of guidance/ensembles as to the strength of the upper energy
and how much cold advection we get into our region after it
exits Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be showers
Tuesday night through Wednesday, with drying out and clearing
later Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry weather is expected
Thursday and Friday, before another system potentially affects
our region with more unsettled weather toward Saturday.

Highs Wednesday with the showers, in the 50s to near 60 with 40s
to around 50 higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the 50s with
40s higher terrain. Highs Friday in the 50s to near 60 with
around 50 higher terrain. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s to
around 60 with lower 50s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z/Mon...VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming
TAF period. High pressure will be over our region through the day
Sunday with a dry cold front crossing the sites Sunday night. A
clear/mostly clear sky through the remainder of the overnight will
give way to some fair weather cumulus above 5 kft and some high
cirrus on Sunday. A return to a mostly clear sky is expected by
Sunday night. No precipitation is expected through the period.

Wind will be westerly at less than 10 kt through the remainder of
the overnight then increase to 10-15 kt on Sunday with some gusts to
around 20 kt. Wind will decrease to 10 kt or less Sunday night.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
West to northwest winds may gust to 25 mph on Sunday, and
around 20 mph on Monday...

Dry and breezy weather will be in place across the region for
Sunday through Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool
side for Sunday and Monday, valley areas should be back into the
60s by Tuesday. There will be some cloud cover for Sunday,
although Monday looks fairly sunny. After a sunny morning on
Tuesday, some clouds will increase by later in the day. RH
values may be as low as 30 percent during the afternoon hours,
although there should be a recovery during the overnight hours.

Winds will be westerly on Sunday and Monday with some gusts up
to 25 mph in the afternoon hours. Southerly winds on Tuesday
could gust as high as 30 mph late in the day.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...NAS