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000
FXUS61 KALY 142248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
648 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers end from northwest to southeast this evening with
drier weather and some patchy fog overnight. An upper-level
trough will result in some isolated to widely scattered showers
on Monday, mainly north of Interstate 90. High pressure will
bring dry and milder weather on Tuesday and Wednesday with
unsettled weather returning later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

As of 645 PM EDT...Mainly just rain showers have occurred this
afternoon with a few rumbles in the mid-Hudson Valley where some
weak elevated instability was able to sneak northward. Given
that most of the region has been worked over from stratiform
rain showers, the severe weather potential has shifted southward
into PA. Even chances for thunderstorms has decreased as the
best instability remains to our south. However, the SPC
mesoscale analysis shows some limited elevated instability
still in the Southern Tier and Catskills so we continued to
mention slight chance of thunder in the forecast mainly south of
I-90 through about 8-9PM tonight. Otherwise, just plain rain
showers ongoing mainly from the Mohawk Valley, Capital District
and southern VT southward this evening with temperatures staying
cool in the 40s with low to mid 50s in the mid-Hudson Valley.

These rain showers will continue exiting from northwest to
southeast this evening with rain ending before Midnight. Clouds
partially clear towards sunrise, especially in valley areas,
which may promote enough radiational cooling to result in patchy
fog. Otherwise, overnight lows will drop into the low to mid
40s with mid to upper 30s in the southern Adirondacks and
southern Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough will dip southward across the region on
Monday. Deep mixing and steepening lapse rates from daytime
heating should result in enough instability with the cold air
aloft for some isolated to widely scattered showers. Best shower
chances will be for areas north of Interstate 90. Otherwise,
partly to mostly cloudy conditions are expected with highs in
the 50s and 60s except some upper 40s across the Adirondacks and
southern Greens.

The trough will begin to lift northward away from the region by
Tuesday as upper-level heights begin to rise and surface high
pressure builds in from the north and west. This will bring the
return of dry weather with a west to northwesterly breeze
continuing. Highs will once again reach the 50s and 60s on
Tuesday. Dry weather continues Tuesday night with lows mainly in
the 30s, except lower 40s across the mid-Hudson Valley into
southern Litchfield County and the upper 20s across the
Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper-level low will be located across the north-central
CONUS on Wednesday as a warm front attempts to lift
northeastward across our area. Upper-level ridging and surface
high pressure to our north and east looks to maintain dry
conditions as precipitation stays to our south and west. Highs
once again will reach the 50s and 60s.

The upper ridge begins to break down heading into the late week
period allowing the upper-level low/trough and surface frontal
system to slowly push across the region with some periods of
rainfall. The clouds and rainfall will result in a cooler day on
Thursday with highs only in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Shower
coverage may decrease some on Friday before another wave of low
pressure along an approaching cold front bring additional rain
chances next weekend, especially on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions in place with light warm
frontal rain showers affecting the region. Scattered showers
will continue to track eastward through the afternoon as the
warm front slowly advances, although precipitation so far has
remained light with impacts to vsbys. VFR cigs may trend
downward to MVFR levels, particularly within heavier shower
elements this afternoon. The likelihood of thunder through this
evening has trended down at all terminals, with TS mentioned
only at POU where conditions are more supportive of convection,
and most likely during the cold frontal passage around or after
00Z Mon.

Precipitation will exit eastward by 03-04Z Mon, with VFR cigs
expected to return at ALB/POU while GFL/PSF are more likely to
see MVFR levels. Areas of mist or fog are possible overnight,
most likely at GFL. Unrestricted vsbys and MVFR/low-VFR cigs are
anticipated after 12-15Z Mon through the remainder of the
period.

South winds at 6-10 kt with possible gusts of 15-20 kt at
POU/PSF will turn out of the southwest and ultimately out of
the west following the cold frontal passage by 03Z Mon. Briefly
stronger gusty winds are possible during any thunderstorms at
POU. Speeds will otherwise lessen overnight, after 03Z Mon,
before increasing to 8-12 kt after 12-15Z Mon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Picard