Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 250800
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
300 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tonight) Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
As of the latest 07Z obs this morning, areas of rain and snow have
developed early this morning across the north central and
northwestern combined Panhandles. Further to the north across SE
COlorado and SW Kansas, winds behind the passing cold front have
reached sustained values between 30-40 mph with gusts over 50 mph.
Some of these stronger northerly winds will move south into the
Panhandles throughout the morning hours in the wake of the cold
front. This will result in periods of blowing snow that could
reduce visibilities at times, especially throughout the morning
hours. With warmer temperatures initially ahead of the cold front,
portions of the central and western Panhandles will start as rain
before quickly changing over to snow. With initial warmer
temperatures and slightly drier airmass further south closer to
I-40, the snow could be slightly delayed in accumulating, but
eventually should start on the grass surfaces before accumulating
on the roadways. Latest hi-res log-p analysis over most of the
central and western Panhandles in the wake of the cold front shows
good moisture in the dendritic growth zone. The only concern
further south closer to I-40 will be if the moisture transport
around the H700 low being suffice for a prolong period of
snowfall. However, with several hours of northerly flow behind the
front could result in locally enhanced snowfall totals along the
Canadian River Valley. These favored areas could see a quick inch
or locally higher amounts of snow before the system exits to the
northeast, and this includes that potential in the Amarillo area.
Further north across the northern Panhandles, up to 2 to 3 inches
cannot be completely ruled out, especially in the northwestern
Panhandles closer to the better moisture source and lift from the
departing low pressure system. Snow chances will end from SW to
NE with the last of the snow exiting the far NE combined
Panhandles later tonight. High temperatures today under cloudy
skies and CAA will struggle to get out of the 30s in most
locations behind the front. Lows tonight will get down into the
20s, with teens in some areas perhaps, especially areas with some
snow cover, favoring the northwestern Panhandles.
Meccariello
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Much of the central to western CONUS is under large and broad
upper level trough with a closed H5 low currently tracking across
the OK Panhandle into portions of SE CO and SW KS. A strong cold
air mass is currently on its way into the combined Panhandles with
possible snow showers as moisture wraps around the H5 low. After
a taste of winter today, the long term will have more spring to
even early summer vibes going into next weekend.
Tomorrow, the closed H5 low will have moved off to the northeast.
However, the much broader trough will stick around for the next
couple of days bringing below normal temperatures for Tue and Wed.
Upslope winds and cloud cover will also hold back warming on these
days. Tuesday into Tue night some showers may be possible across
the southern TX Panhandle as perturbations propogate across on the
base of the trough. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out for
the western Panhandles Tue evening.
By Wed night the combined Panhandles will come under northwest
flow aloft with the upper level ridging building over the
Intermountain West. It will be this ridge to bring forth afternoon
highs near normal for Thu then almost 10 to 12 degrees above
normal for Fri-Sun. With thos warm temperatures Fri-Sun some
breezy southwest winds may feed some elevated fire weather
conditions if not low end critical with RH values progged to fall
into the 10 to 15 percent range especially in the western FA.
36
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
VFR conditions to start the 06Z TAF period. Within the next 1-3
hours after the start of the TAF period, MVFR to potentially IFR
cigs should move into all TAF sites. All sites may also experience
BLSN at time, reducing vsbys for periods of time. A return back to
VFR is possible past 00Z Tuesday for KDHT/KGUY. Winds will shift
from westerly to northerly within the next hour or so at all sites
behind cold front. Winds will be sustained out of the north
20-25uesdaykts with gusts up to 35 kts at times. Winds will
subside slightly past 00Z Tuesday to the end of the TAF period.
Meccariello
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 36 25 54 30 / 40 10 10 20
Beaver OK 34 20 49 23 / 80 30 0 10
Boise City OK 31 17 46 24 / 80 0 10 10
Borger TX 38 25 55 32 / 60 0 0 10
Boys Ranch TX 37 24 56 30 / 70 10 10 20
Canyon TX 38 25 56 30 / 30 0 10 30
Clarendon TX 43 28 55 31 / 10 0 0 20
Dalhart TX 33 19 49 25 / 80 10 10 20
Guymon OK 31 18 49 25 / 90 10 0 10
Hereford TX 40 25 57 30 / 40 0 10 30
Lipscomb TX 39 24 52 27 / 40 10 0 10
Pampa TX 37 25 53 30 / 40 10 0 10
Shamrock TX 46 28 55 30 / 10 0 0 10
Wellington TX 51 30 56 32 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ001>004-006>008-011-012-016-017-317.
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...29