Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
000
FXUS63 KBIS 110153
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
853 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy conditions with gusts up to 55 mph are expected in the
southwest today.
- Scattered showers with a 10 (west) to 40 (central) percent
chance of a wetting rain (tenth of an inch or more) are
expected today. A few thunderstorms are possible mainly east
of Highway 85 this afternoon and early evening.
- Conditional near-critical fire weather conditions are possible
in the afternoon and early evening on Thursday and Friday. Any
near-critical fire weather conditions should be limited in
areal scope and duration.
- Additional rain chances return early next week, although high
uncertainty remains in regard to timing, coverage, duration,
and thunderstorm potential.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Will remove thunder for the rest of this evening, and earlier
allowed the wind advisory to expire as winds continue to
decrease. All other forecast elements remain on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
The forecast for this evening remains on track. Mainly modified
sky cover and POPs based on latest satellite and radar imagery
and trends. There has been a decent period of wind gusts between
40-45 mph northwest the past few hours, but these winds should
be on the decrease here on out so opted not to issue a headline
for that area. The wind advisory southwest and far south central
remains through 01Z (8 pm Central).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Today, a progressive upper level short wave trough is pushing across
the northern Plains. At the surface a center of low pressure has
moved out of southern Manitoba and into Minnesota, along with an
attendant cold front passing from north to south across North
Dakota. Along and behind this boundary, scattered showers have
developed across much of the forecast area, and will continue
through the late evening. Isolated thunderstorms have begun to
develop over portions of central North Dakota, mostly east of
Highway 85, as model forecast soundings have resolved on a few
hundred J/Kg of cape becoming available in this region.
Paired with Minnesotan surface low, a center of high pressure is
progressing out of Montana into Wyoming this afternoon. As such, the
tightening of the pressure gradient will promote windy conditions
across the southwest through the evening. Gusts up to 55 miles per
hour are possible across the southwest and portions of the south
central, with breezy conditions possible elsewhere.
Accordingly, a Wind Advisory continues for the southwest and
portions of the south central through the early evening. Where
thunderstorms do develop, enhanced and erratic winds will also
be possible.
Windy conditions will diminish this evening, but will remain
generally breezy overnight and through much of Thursday and Friday.
Minimum relative humidities in the lower 20s are also expected over
the southwest on Thursday, though this is disconnected from the
breeziest winds in the southeast. As such, no widespread near-
critical fire weather are currently anticipated for Thursday, though
periods of conditionally near-critical fire threat is possible
for the early afternoon over portions of the southcentral both
days. Slightly higher minimum relative humidities in the mid 20s
are expected in the southwest on Friday, when the breeziest
winds are also in the southwest. However, lower winds speeds
along with the higher minimum RHs limits near-critical fire
weather concerns to a few hours during the afternoon on Friday.
Otherwise, temperatures remain at or above seasonable normals today
and Thursday, with highs today from the upper 40s southwest to the
lower 60s east and highs on Thursday forecast in the 50s. Starting
late Thursday, upper level riding will begin to build into region
from the west, which promote unseasonably warm temperatures in the
mid 60s and 70s through the weekend. Conditions are expected to
remain generally dry, though a quick shot of light precipitation is
possible Saturday night as a weak shortwave trough moves down the
overall ridging pattern. Temperatures then begin to trend back
toward seasonable normals through early next week as flow aloft
becomes increasingly zonal Sunday and Monday, returning broadly to
the 40s and 50s by Wednesday. Precipitation becomes increasingly more
likely with this pattern, though the ensemble becomes increasingly
discordant regarding to the exact timing and location of a potential
system next is beginning to be resolved. While this precipitation
will begin primarily as rain, there may periods during the coolest
periods of the night where it transitions into snow, with low
chances (10-20%) for light accumulations possible across the
southwest.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z period. An
upper level disturbance will continue to bring scattered
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms early to mid evening
for mainly central and eastern areas of North Dakota,
occasionally resulting in MVRF ceilings and visibilities under
any heavier showers or storms. Erratic winds are possible where
thunderstorms and showers do move through as well. Northwesterly
winds will be breezy to windy through early this evening, with
the strongest gusts expected in the west. Winds will then
diminish through the evening and overnight, before again
becoming breezy Thursday morning and afternoon. There will also
be another round of showers possible for eastern ND during the
day Thursday, mainly impacting KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...NH