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000
FXUS64 KBMX 092019
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
319 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024

Southerly flow and plenty of moisture advection will continue over
the area through the short term. PW values will be max for this
time of year, with scattered convection moving southwest to
northeast around a high pressure over the eastern coast. Most of
the activity will remain in the northern half of Alabama, though a
stray light shower may venture into the southwestern quarter of
the state today and overnight. Rain could be moderate at times
with accumulations expected over a time period of this afternoon
through the overnight hours. Instabilities will be limited,
around or less than 500 j/kg across the northern part of the area,
but plenty of upper level dynamics and bulk shear will allow for
a few isolated thunderstorms to be embedded in the areas of
showers.

Scattered convection will continue through the night and into
the very early morning where that wave of convection will move
east, with dry weather expected over the state through the morning
and early afternoon ahead of the next wave of storms.
Temperatures will be colder today due to the continuous cloud
cover, with highs in the low 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s tonight.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024

Multiple threats, including flooding, severe storms, and strong
gradient winds, remain in the forecast Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night.

Will focus on the severe threat first, since that is the more
difficult one to diagnose. The main issue remains on how far north
that severe threat will get. It largely depends on amount and
timing of destabilization tomorrow afternoon. There is a window of
opportunity for the low levels to destabilize by early afternoon.
However, this is about the same time that the upper level low is
opening up, and there is a energy transfer from one surface low
position to another. During this transition, shear profiles are
not exactly the best in our area for severe storms. Once the
surface low reorganizes, and the low level jet kicks back in in
the evening, stability is on the downswing.

The key thing to watch will be how much convection is going on
early in the day, and how much that suppresses the
destabilization process for the afternoon. If there`s no early
shower/storm activity (or it is all well north of our area), then
we could destabilize early enough to tap into some of the early
"good shear." Also, if there is no low position transition, or if
it happens more quickly, and there is a linkage of instability and
shear, then the severe threat ramps up.

Having said all that, it is certainly going to rain. And there is
a more than slight chance of flooding rain. Will continue with
ongoing Flood Watch. WPC collaborated storm total QPF amounts are
still in the 2 to 4 inch range. Much (if not most) of that comes
in the 18z Wednesday to 06z Thursday time frame.

Finally, gradient winds will likely be in the 15 to 25 mph range,
with occasional gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Some of the higher
resolution CAMS are actually hinting at a wake low behind the
convective band tomorrow afternoon/evening, which could bring a
brief period of even higher gusts.

It will take the better part of Thursday to get rid of the
lingering rain and clouds, leaving a dry forecast for Friday
through (at least) the start of next week.

/61/



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024

Scattered convection will move across the northern half of the
state today through the early morning, with the greatest chances
of any activity at a TAF site at all but KMGM and KTOI. Wednesday
morning, activity moves east and models show dry weather through
the early afternoon ahead of the next wave of convection. Low
level moisture content will be very high with ceilings expected to
lower to MVFR overnight through much of the TAF period on
Wednesday.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue across the
area through tonight. Showers and storms will be more widespread
on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A drier airmass returns on
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  78  57  69 /  40  70 100  40
Anniston    58  79  61  71 /  30  60 100  40
Birmingham  60  77  59  67 /  30  80 100  30
Tuscaloosa  60  77  58  69 /  20  90 100  20
Calera      59  78  60  69 /  20  80 100  30
Auburn      61  79  63  73 /  20  50 100  30
Montgomery  61  81  62  70 /  10  70 100  20
Troy        61  81  62  73 /  10  60 100  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-
Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...24