Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
351 FXUS65 KBOI 052040 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 240 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...At 2 PM MDT our upper low was still centered in eastern OR with showers extending from eastern NV through south-central ID, across the Boise Mountains and Upper Weiser River area into Baker County and western Harney County, but relatively dry closer to the low center. The low is forecast to move eastward along the ID/NV border tonight and the showers to the north and west of the low center will move back over our CWA. As the low exits east overnight, westerly winds will increase significantly in south- central ID. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Magic Valley and southern Twin Falls County from 3 AM MDT to 6 PM MDT Monday. After brief ridging and drying in western Idaho and eastern Oregon Monday morning, another Pacific trough will move inland later Monday and Monday night with more rain and mountain snow. Monday night. That trough will exit east early Tuesday, and again west winds will increase in south-central Idaho, possibly even stronger than on Monday. Instability will allow a slight chance of thunderstorms in all zones Monday afternoon, and in southwest Idaho Monday evening, and again in eastern-most Idaho zones Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will change little (i.e., stay cold) through Wednesday, with snow level generally 4000-5000 feet MSL. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...An upper low will remain over the western US through Thursday. This will keep temperatures around 10 degrees below normal on Wednesday before warming to near normal by Thursday as the trough exits the area. Thereafter, an upper ridge is forecast to build over the Pacific NW and southwest Canada on Friday into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to rapidly rise to around 5-10 degrees above normal during this time, with mostly dry conditions expected through the weekend. Temperatures in the low elevations have a 50-70% chance of hitting 80 degrees Saturday, with higher chances on Sunday. && .AVIATION...Isolated showers, becoming numerous overnight with MVFR to LIFR conditions. Mountains obscured. Snow levels 5000-6000 ft MSL, lowering to 3500-4500 ft tonight. Break in precip Monday morning, then numerous afternoon showers/ thunderstorms. Potential for small hail and outflow gusts to 35-45 kt. Surface winds: NW-SW 10-20 kt, except 15-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt for KMUO to KJER/KTWF beginning early Monday. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 10-20 kt, then W-NW 20-30 kt by 00z/Mon. KBOI...VFR, then periods of MVFR in rain, mainly after Mon/05z. A break in rain 11z-18z/Mon, with a return to VFR. Showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon/eve. Small hail and outflow gusts to 35-45 kt possible. Surface winds: generally W-NW 5-15 kt. Then W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt after 05z/Mon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Monday IDZ016-030. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....SH AVIATION.....SH