915
FNUS71 KBOX 062330
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Carolina W4...RI DEM
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
730 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Weak high pressure moves across southern New England Tuesday,
followed by a weak low pressure Wednesday. Light north winds
giving way to a south seabreeze during the afternoon. Light south
winds expected for Wednesday. Mainly dry through Tuesday night,
then increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

Minimum relative humidity expected to be 40-50 percent Tuesday,
and from 70-80 percent Wednesday.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Dewpoint............50.
Max apparent temp...70.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    south around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest
                    7 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (28100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......20 increasing to 25 around noon, then
                    decreasing to 20 early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 25 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........22  20  18  16  10  20  22  20  16  15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............60  64  66  68  69  70  69  68  66  66
Dewpoint........52  52  51  51  51  51  51  51  50  49
RH..............75  65  58  54  53  51  53  54  56  54
Heat index (F)..60  64  66  68  69  70  69  68  66  66
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  NE  E   SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  9   7   8   9   12  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.8 2.5 3.6 4.2 4.7 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  SE  SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.14  13  10  8   7   7   7   8   8   9
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  20  22  25  25  28  26  21  14  12
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...20  20  25  25  25  25  20  25  25  25

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy then
                    becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Dewpoint............48.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph early in the morning.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................5 to 13 decreasing to 2 to 5 after midnight.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........21  23  49  55  56  71  66  61  56  54  52  50
Weather cov.....                    PTY PTY
Weather type....                    FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............63  60  57  55  54  53  52  51  51  49  48  48
Dewpoint........50  49  50  50  49  49  48  48  47  47  48  48
RH..............62  67  77  83  83  86  86  89  86  93  100 100
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   6   5   5   5   3   3   3   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  9   9   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........2   3   4   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   9   9
ADI.............13  8   5   5   5   5   5   3   2   3   4   5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning, then chance of rain
                    showers through early afternoon. Isolated
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. Patchy fog
                    early.
CWR.................6 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................5 to 10 increasing to 17 to 25 early, then
                    decreasing to 9 to 11 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........63     88     87     88     89     82
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............0      10     10     10     10     10
Temp............49     53     55     57     59     58
RH..............100    89     86     83     80     86
20 ft wind......S 5    S 6    S 7    S 9    S 10   S 9
20 ft wind gust.7      8      12     13     14     14
LVORI...........9      6      5      4      3      5
ADI.............5      5      10     19     25     11

$$
Forecaster...Belk
Requested by...Dave Walker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413307.0/BOX
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL WALKRS3D@LIVE.COM