Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241134 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
634 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The main concern during this portion of the total forecast
remains wind. The inherited Wind Advisory for all of Cameron
County and the coastal and island portions of Willacy and Kenedy
counties has been expanded to now include all of Willacy and
Kenedy counties, as accurate-more-often- than-not MAV guidance
suggests strong winds today within all of the three immediate
coastal counties.

Otherwise, dry weather with above normal temperatures will occur in
addition to the wind courtesy of a nearly zonal mid-level flow and
despite the Monday passage of a cold front.

Finally, with strong winds and rough seas along the Lower Texas
Coast, a High Risk of rip currents will exist at the local beaches
until around sunset Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Post-frontal light northerly winds Monday evening will become
northwesterly late Monday night as surface high pressure builds into
the region. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to range from
the mid 50s across the Rio Grande Plains, upper 50s to around 60 in
the Rio Grande Valley and the mid 60s along the beaches. Surface
high pressure settles across Deep South Texas and along the Lower
Texas Coast on Tuesday. Near normal temperatures and sunny skies
will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in lower 80s, except
for the 70s at the beaches. Cool nights are expected Tuesday night
and Wednesday night with lows generally in the 50s. The mid to upper
level trough will swing over the region on Wednesday which may lead
to a few passing high clouds. Onshore flow will return by Thursday
into Friday as the high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico
moves farther eastward. Southeast winds will enhance into the
weekend as the pressure gradient tightens again between the high
pressure to the southeast and another low pressure system emerging
from the Rockies. Breezy southeast winds will be possible Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

MVFR to VFR continues to be anticipated at the aerodromes through
the next 24 hours. A breezy to windy onshore flow will occur with
mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Today through Monday: Adverse marine conditions will prevail
along the Lower Texas Coast during the period, due to both an
enhanced pressure gradient and the subsequent Monday passage of a
cold front. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
Laguna Madre and Gulf of Mexico waters. However, the Advisory for
the Laguna Madre has been trimmed back and will end around sunset
today, with the Advisory for the Gulf waters continuing until
around midday Monday. An additional Small Craft Advisory or Small
Craft Exercise Caution may possibly be needed Monday afternoon
until sunset that day for the Gulf waters depending on marine
conditions.

Monday night through Saturday...Light to moderate northerly winds
are expected to continue Monday night through Tuesday night.
Small Craft Exercise Caution may be needed Monday night into
Tuesday as Gulf seas remain elevated. Light winds will become
easterly to northeasterly by Wednesday. More favorable marine
conditions will continue on Thursday. However, by late week, a
moderate southeasterly breeze may become fresh on Friday and
Saturday as the pressure gradient strenghtens again with the high
pressure and a low pressure system far to the north-northwest.
Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisories may be
needed during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  71  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               83  68  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 86  68  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         89  64  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      75  69  79  65 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  69  86  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355-451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$


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