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000
FXUS61 KBTV 141717
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
117 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of rain showers are expected today and Monday before
we finally see a dry stretch of weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A
complex storm system is expected to take shape over the central US
later this week which will increase rain chances across the North
Country on Thursday but no significant systems appear to be on the
horizon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains very much on track.
Only made minor changes to the cloud cover and PoPs given latest
trends. It`s worth noting that temperatures should have already
topped out from the Champlain Valley points and west for today. The
atmosphere is taking some time to saturate from top to bottom
so rain showers are still looking to become widespread by later
this afternoon. No travel or hydrologic impacts are anticipated.

Previous Discussion...Rain and snow showers are coming to an
end across the North Country early this morning as the upper
level trough axis has shifted east of the region. Cloud cover
has begun to erode from west to east and this trend of
decreasing cloud cover is expected to continue through the
morning hours. However, we expect clouds to quick to overspread
the region again this afternoon as a weak low pressure system
develops near the Great Lakes and ride the northern periphery of
a developing ridge. This weak low pressure system will slide
across the North Country with yet another round of rain showers
expected. Some mountain snow showers for the highest peaks
remains possible but snow levels will likely be greater than
3000 ft so only rain is expected across all major thoroughfares
and population centers. Rainfall totals will range from nearly a
third of an inch across southern Vermont to around a tenth of
an inch near the International border which won`t create any
additional flooding concerns are area rivers are rapidly
falling. There was once a concern for a few thunderstorms today
but warming temperatures aloft should put a cap on any
instability. In addition, our 0-6 km shear will be between 70
and 80 knots today which will shear apart any storms that try to
grow vertically, thus limiting thunderstorm potential quite
significantly. The main round of rain showers will end this
evening with the possibility of a brief break before additional
showers develop in a favorable upslope regime with northwesterly
flow. Temperatures again should be supportive of rain showers
for all major thoroughfares with new rainfall totals likely less
than a tenth of an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 301 AM EDT Sunday...An upper shortwave trough/weak surface
boundary will shift southward across the region Monday night into
Tuesday as the main trough axis swings eastward toward the Canadian
Maritimes. A few showers will linger Monday evening, but should
mostly dissipate overnight. Temperatures will drop into the 30s
areawide, but most of the precipitation will have ended before
conditions are cold enough for snow. The upper trough remains
positioned to our northeast on Tuesday, and a few showers may
develop across the Northeast Kingdom during the afternoon as lapse
rates steepen between daytime heating and the cold pool aloft. The
Northeast Kingdom will also see the coldest daytime temperatures,
with some locations struggling to warm above 50F. Elsewhere, highs
will be in the mid 50s to around 60F, warmest in those locations
that see the most sunshine. Winds will be a little on the brisk
side, gusting to around 25 mph at times. The upper trough finally
starts to push further eastward Tuesday night, making way for
ridging. Hence Tuesday night will be dry and likely chilly with lows
ranging from the upper 20s/low 30s in the higher terrain to the
mid/upper 30s in the wider valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 301 AM EDT Sunday...Overall the latter half of the week is
still looking unsettled, though overall trend has been to slow the
arrival of precipitation. Ridging crosses our region on Wednesday
while low pressure slides eastward through the Midwest and into the
Great Lakes. A warm front out ahead of this low will lift into the
Northeast CONUS. Moisture will pool along/ahead of the front, but
the boundary will wash out as its parent low occludes, and a
potential secondary low develops off the Mid Atlantic Coast. So
while showers will approach from the west Wednesday and Wednesday
night, the overall trend is for precipitation to erode as the front
moves through on Thursday. Have therefore pulled back on PoPs for
Wed and Wednesday night. Scattered showers possible on Thursday with
the aforementioned front, then again on Friday into Friday night as
the cold front passes through. Additional shortwaves rotating
overhead would keep the threat of precipitation around into the
weekend, especially over the northern mountains. Temperatures will
generally remain near to slightly above seasonal normal through the
period, though it`ll depend on timing/placement of frontal passages
and associated precipitation. Have stayed close to the NBM, giving
highs in the 50s to around 60F (though colder for Saturday behind
the front) and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions prevail across the region at
the start of the TAF period, but ceilings are expected to become
mostly MVFR between 19-23z from southwest to northeast. Locally
IFR ceilings are possible between 00-12z tonight. Rain showers
are light enough to keep visibilities at generally VFR, but
could become MVFR during times of heavier showers. Rain showers
are expected to be most widespread between 22z and 04z, becoming
showery and scattered thereafter. Ceilings are mostly MVFR to
start the day on Monday, but trend VFR towards the end of the
TAF period. Winds will generally be out of the WSW up to 10
knots but occasional gusts up to 20 knots will be possible at
times throughout the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK is experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Chai/Clay
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Chai/Clay
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV