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000
FXUS62 KCAE 121146
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
746 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds to continue through Friday. Drier, warmer weather
fills in behind the front for the upcoming weekend and early
next week as high pressure and upper ridging move over head.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7:45 AM Update: We have already seen periodic gusts in excess of
20 mph this morning across the area. Forecast soundings indicate
mixed layer winds around 40 mph or greater for this afternoon.
So, as we tap into this well-mixed layer, we should see gusts
around 40 mph, especially this afternoon into the evening.
Therefore, we have replaced the Lake Wind Advisory with a Wind
Advisory to account for the potential for these stronger winds.

Early-morning discussion: A well mixed boundary layer along
with a tight pressure gradient will be present today, helping to
produce both strong synoptic winds and associated wind gusts.
Lake Wind Advisory (replaced with Wind Advisory) will remain in
effect throughout the daytime hours. As for rainfall chances,
that will remain low for much of the day for the forecast area.
However there is one fly in the ointment late this afternoon.
There is a trailing upper low/shortwave moving out of the mid
Mississippi River Valley this morning that will be moving
through the central Appalachians and southeastern States late
this afternoon/early evening. Although moisture remains limited,
this trough may bring enough moisture along with it, along with
colder temperatures aloft, to help produce some isolated to
scattered shower activity across the northern Midlands and Pee
Dee region. Main time frame for any activity looks to be between
4 pm and 8 pm. Model guidance does show the potential for this
activity, and will include slight chance pops during this time
frame across the northern third of the cwa. Any qpf amounts will
be light. Afternoon temperatures slightly cooler than normal,
with highs in the low to middle 70s.

Tonight: Shortwave moves east and a return to dry conditions
across the entire cwa. Pressure gradient will begin to weaken
some overnight, allowing winds to finally begin to weaken some.
Winds will still be gusty through the night though, with wind
gusts between 15-20 mph still possible. Overnight lows drop into
the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunny and dry weather conditions are expected this weekend.
Winds aloft will be out of the northwest as strong ridging
develops over the Intermountain West and moves east on Sunday.
At the surface, the pressure gradient will weaken on Saturday as
high pressure builds in and then passes to our south on Sunday.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal on Saturday
despite abundant sunshine. Surface winds shift to the southwest
on Sunday resulting in increasing temperatures and moisture with
above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather is expected to continue through the extended. Upper
ridging passes overhead on Tuesday with a shortwave passing to our
north Wednesday night followed by zonal flow to end the period.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will be anchored near Bermuda
promoting southwesterly winds across the forecast area. This will
result in well above normal temperatures and increasing dewpoints,
especially later in the week. While skies will be mainly sunny on
Monday, more clouds are expected during the mid-week as the
aforementioned shortwave approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main concerns this forecast period continue to be the strong
winds.

Main upper trough moving east of the region today, with a
secondary trailing upper low moving through later this
afternoon/early evening. Drier air has finally created vfr
conditions under clear skies. Skies should remain mostly sunny
through the day, with possibly some mid-level isolated to
scattered clouds forming late this afternoon across the northern
Midlands as a trailing upper low begins moving through. Winds
will continue to be a problem. With well mixed low levels, along
with a tight pressure gradient, stronger winds will be able to
mix down to the surface. Sustained winds between 12-22 knots
through the period, with wind gusts up to 30 knots. Winds may
begin to weaken some late in the taf period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$