483
FXUS62 KCHS 021348
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
948 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast through
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled for the remainder of
Southeast South Carolina.

Today: Fog/stratus has mostly dissipated. Expect a healthy
cumulus field to develop later this morning as temperatures
rise. Cumulus are already starting to form along the upper
Charleston County coast near McClellanville. Any cumulus should
scour out later this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland.
Forecast soundings are not as capped as what was depicted
yesterday, but still expect a rain-free day for most areas. Will
need to watch for a few brief pop ups near the sea breeze where
dewpoints will pool back into the upper 60s/near 70. Gridded
pops were held below mentionable thresholds for now. It should
be noted a few of the CAMs do depict isolated showers/tstms,
mainly over Southeast South Carolina where convergence along the
sea breeze will be a bit stronger. Typically, convergence along
a pure sea breeze circulation is not as strong as a resultant
sea breeze, so this will be watched carefully. Highs from the
upper 80s/near 90 inland with cooler conditions closer to the
beaches look on track.

Tonight: Very little change to the pattern surface and aloft.
Winds will quickly decouple this evening, allowing for good
radiational cooling to occur. Actual lows will be similar to
what they were early this morning. Subsidence aloft and
considerable boundary layer moisture will again lead to fog
developing after midnight. For now we show areas of fog all
counties, but dense fog is likely, and another Dense Fog
Advisory could be required. We included mention in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shortwave ridging will persist Friday, though the ridge axis
will move off the coast during the afternoon. Strong mid-level
subsidence is expected to maintain dry conditions over the area,
though we can`t rule out a late day shower or thunderstorm far
inland if something moves in from the west. Highs will be in the
upper 80s except along the coast where prevailing onshore flow
enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze keeps temps in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

Increasing moisture and a series of shortwaves will move through
Saturday through Sunday. Prevailing onshore flow should produce
a robust sea breeze that will move inland fairly early in the
afternoon both days. Scattered to numerous showers and tstms are
expected, especially farther inland where the sea breeze
interacts with greater instability. Although activity should
wane overnight, the continuation of upper level energy moving
through Saturday night could sustain at least isolated nocturnal
convection. Highs both days will reach the low/mid 80s except
near the coast where a marine layer will reduce temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday should again feature scattered diurnal convection given a
weak shortwave moving through, coincident with moderate surface
based instability. A strong subtropical ridge will build over
the area Tuesday through late week, bringing dry weather and
unseasonably warm temperatures. Record high temps are not out of
the question on Wednesday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are
expected to climb well into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: All terminals will experience prevailing flight
restrictions in stratus and fog through mid morning, resulting
in conditions below alternate minimums, and even near airfield
minimums early on. Improvement back to VFR should occur by
1330-1430Z at all sites.

There are indications that a few showers will form along the sea
breeze this afternoon. But the potential is too low given dry
and sinking air in place.

Late in the TAF cycle there will likely be another round of
fog/stratus that forms. For now we went down to MVFR ceilings
and visibilities, although IFR or even LIFR is again possible.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in
overnight/early morning fog and stratus. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The local waters will remain near the western side of
Atlantic ridging, resulting in light winds veering around to the
NE this morning, then to the E-SE this afternoon. Even with
local sea breeze enhancements, speeds will be no more than about
10-15 kt. Seas will hold around 2 ft.

Tonight: The synoptic pattern is basically the same, and E-SE
winds are again no more than about 10 kt, with seas only 2 feet
throughout. As of this time with an onshore flow, fog is likely
not a concern.

Friday through Tuesday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain
benign conditions over the marine area Friday through Tuesday.
SE winds early in the period will steadily switch to S and then
SW. Wind speeds will generally be less than 15 kt with seas no
higher than 4 ft. The pattern will favor a good sea breeze each
afternoon along the coast, with winds in Charleston Harbor
potentially gusting 15-20 kt at times.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$