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000
FXUS62 KCHS 222335
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
735 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the dominant player across the southeast
through the week and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: A short wave trough and associated surface low in the
Atlantic will continue to pull further away, as ridging builds
in from the west and northwest both surface and aloft. Winds
will decouple early on as the center of the high near the
Appalachians moves southeast. That along with clear skies and
an exceptionally dry air mass will allow for ideal radiational
cooling away from the immediate coast. This could very well be
the coldest it will be until autumn, and the latest forecast
shows min temperatures mainly 40-45 degrees inland. Some of the
typically colder rural places of the Francis Marion, northern
Dorchester and interior Colleton County will dip into the upper
30s. In closer proximity to the coast, temperatures will only
drop to the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Larger scale upper flow pattern will remain somewhat progressive
through the mid week period with northern stream short-wave energy
driving through the Great Lakes region, and eventually swinging
through New England by Thursday with subtle troughiness nosing down
into the southeast states. At the surface, high pressure settles
over the southeast during the Tuesday into Wednesday period. A weak
surface boundary/cold front will settle down into the southeast
later Wednesday into Thursday.

Weather-wise: A return to quieter/rain-free weather through the
short term period. Temperatures will continue to run below normal
early on, before rebounding back to around normal Wednesday and
Thursday as southerly/southwesterly flow re-establishes across the
region. As mentioned in previous discussions, a few showers are not
out of the question late Wednesday into Thursday along the
aforementioned boundary. But precip chances are simply too low to
include in the forecast at this juncture.

Nighttime temperatures will be cool again Tuesday night...upper 40s
to lower 50s...rebounding back to around normal (middle 50s to
around 60) Wednesday night and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level flow is looking to become a bit more amplified later
this week into the upcoming weekend with deepening troughiness
developing through the western CONUS and downstream ridging setting
up along the southeast and mid-Atlantic region. Surface high
pressure regains a foothold throughout much of the eastern U.S. and
will maintain dry weather. That said, we may have high level cloud
cover issues to contend with as southern stream upper jet energy
sets up from Texas eastward across the southeast. Otherwise,
temperatures will continue to run around normal late week into the
weekend, warming to above normal late weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR conditions through 00Z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The center of surface high pressure will slide east
across Deep South tonight, reaching the eastern Carolinas by
daybreak Tuesday. N-NE winds will gradually decrease, generally
ranging between 10-15 kts late. Wave heights will also subside
to 3-4 ft within 20 NM, with 5-6 ft across the outer GA waters.
It is the waters beyond 20 nm off the Georgia coast where we
have a Small Craft Advisory.

Tuesday through Saturday: Northeasterly winds early on become
southerly through mid week as high pressure shifts offshore. A cold
front slips into the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with high
pressure returning thereafter. The ongoing Small Craft Advisory for
the outer Georgia waters will persist into early Tuesday afternoon
for 6 ft seas, but otherwise conditions are expected to remain below
advisory criteria through the period.

Rip Currents: Winds weaken and veer southeasterly/southerly for
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, lingering 9 to 10 second swell and
proximity to the full moon will keep an elevated risk of rip
currents at the Georgia beaches Tuesday, and potentially a
Moderate Risk along both southeast Georgia and southeast South
Carolina beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar will undergo maintenance April 23-26. Critical
electrical work is planned at the radar site which will require
the radar to be offline until the work is completed. Once the
radar is taken down, it will remain offline until all electrical
work is finalized. The radar is tentatively scheduled to return
to service by April 26.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Adam/NED
AVIATION...
MARINE...