Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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380 FXUS63 KDDC 061911 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms expected east of Highway 283 this afternoon into the evening hours. - Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main concern with the highest tornado threat across south central Kansas - Critical Fire weather conditions are expected west of highway 283 this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon - A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and persist for several days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Mesoscale Update... Weak thunderstorms developed this morning along a dry cold front in northwest Kansas. Thus far, initiation has not occurred along or ahead of the true dry line. As a strong upper level system lifts northeastward in negative tilt fashion by mid-day and into early afternoon, mid level cooling from 700-500mb will spread eastward across the front/dryline and help remove a weak capping inversion overlying the low level moisture. Thus, daytime heating at low levels along with the mid level cooling will lead to steepening of low to mid level lapse rates. Initial storm development will be along the dry cold front from WaKeeney southward to west of Dodge City. These could contain damaging winds and large hail; but if these storms are more linear in nature, then damaging wind would be the main concern. By early afternoon, the dry front will intersect the dry line southeast of Dodge City, with the dry front extending northward from a weak surface low into northern Kansas. A tropical warm front will also be situated across south central Kansas and will intersect the dry line. Hodographs are more favorable for tornadoes along and south and east of a line from Larned to Greensburg to Coldwater between 3 pm and 6 pm given that mid level cold advection with mid level backing of the winds are more subtle than farther north, but still enough to result in sufficient weakening of the capping inversion. That said, the various models also indicate some mid level backing across south central Kansas as far south as Pratt and Greensburg, which would result in shorter lived tornadoes instead of long tracked ones. The most favored area for long tracked tornadoes is along the Oklahoma state line in Barber and Comanche counties. As long as storms remain discrete along the southern tier, very large hail to baseball size and larger are possible, especially closer to the Oklahoma state line given CAPE values in the 2000-3000 j/kg range and favorable shear profile (less mid level backing). Significant tornadoes are forecast given 0-1 km SRH values in the 150 to 200 m2/s2 range. Farther north, stronger mid level backing of the wind in response to stronger mid level cold advection may result in more of a linear storm configuration with damaging winds and marginally severe hail, although brief and significant tornadoes could still occur with any cells that remain discrete. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Strong to severe storms are expected late this afternoon into this evening as a strong storm system moves through the area. A dryline has set up across western Kansas with a cold front overtaking this feature this afternoon. Dewpoints ahead of these features will be above 60F with south southeast winds funneling in increased moisture. Cape values above 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear above 30 knots will support any storm that forms to quickly become severe. Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main concern. A line of storms have already developed across our northern zones and should make it out of the area within the next few hours. Storms farther south will develop by 21Z generally east of Highway 283. Low level Helicity will be the highest across south central Kansas late this afternoon into this evening. This is where the highest chance of a tornado to form. Storms will then trek northeast and into central Kansas by early this evening and move out of the DDC. In addition to the storms, low RH and strong westerly winds will be felt behind the dryline. A Red Flag is in effect to account of this increase in fire danger. Skies become mostly clear as the storms move out of the area and continue into tomorrow. A few mid level clouds are expected tomorrow afternoon into the first part of tomorrow night before becoming mostly clear by sunrise Wednesday. Breezy westerly winds are expected through tomorrow, shifting to more of a northerly direction tomorrow night. Low RHs are also expected tomorrow afternoon west of Highway 283. Currently a Fire Weather Watch is issued west of this area and will probably be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning after this initial warning is expired. As for temperatures, lows tonight will dip into the mid 40s. Above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow due to the downslope winds with highs ranging from the mid 70s across our northern zones with around 80 to low 80s elsewhere. Lows tomorrow night look to range from around 40 degrees across far western Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 A quiet pattern emerges in the long term forecast. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through the work week with light northerly winds. There may be a weak disturbance that moves through the area this weekend. But as of now, no precipitation is depicted by the NBM. Highs throughout the long term will generally be in the upper 60s to mid 70s through Friday then upper 70s to low 80s this weekend. Lows will generally be in the 40s with a few low 50s possible across south central Kansas by this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 450 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Southeasterly moist upslope surface winds This Morning will maintain a stratus deck firmly in the IFR category as far east as Garden City, and perhaps Liberal. Most guidance does indicate visibility is leaning to remain above the LIFR category, but if visibility were to drop to one half mile or less still the favored area would be the DDC terminal between 10 and 13z, as the NBM forecasts mean visibility less than one half mile over south central Kansas. The ceilings will give way to a dryline in the mid morning hours, which could become the focus for numerous severe thunderstorms as early as the 15 and 18z timeframe anywhere form GCK to HYS, and spreading east in a broken line through mid afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Widespread red flag meteorological conditions are expected each of the next 2 days across the western half of the area. The area hasnt been cleared of dry fuels for the season, however there may be some variability in the greenness withing the highlighted region. The red flag warning was expanded for all areas along the highway 23 corridor This Afternoon, with a areal matching Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday. Areas along the highway 283 corridor and eastward are considered too green to continue warnings for the time being. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ UPDATE...Finch SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42 LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99