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000
FXUS63 KDLH 132042
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
342 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected again on
  Sunday for parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest
  Wisconsin due to dry relative humidity and breezy northwest
  winds.

- A low pressure system will bring several days of rain, light
  mixed precipitation, and gusty winds for most of this upcoming
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Dry, breezy, and warm weather is happening this afternoon for
much of the region, with the exception of clouds and scattered
showers around and north of the Iron Range and into the
Arrowhead as a weak wave passes through. Near critical fire
weather conditions will persist mainly in east-central Minnesota
through this afternoon due to the dry relative humidity and
gusty southerly winds. As we head into the late afternoon and
evening, weak synoptic lift will combine with a few hundred J/kg
of SBCAPE to produce a ~15% chance for storms in northwest
Wisconsin. The dry air should suppress most convection from
developing, but an isolated cell or two could produce some brief
heavy rain and gusty winds. Severe weather is not expected. Any
showers/storms are expected to end this evening with quiet
weather the rest of the night.

A weak cold front passing through tonight will bring a wind
shift to northwesterly on Sunday. The weather will once again be
dry, and with relative humidity expected to drop down to around
20 to 30 percent, near critical fire weather conditions are
expected again with breezy northwest winds. The driest
conditions are expected approximately along and south of the US
2 corridor in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Outside of that, mostly sunny skies are expected with balmy
temperatures in the 60s to around 70 for most places (cooler in
the Arrowhead).

Once we go into Monday, we will return to a warm air advection
pattern with ridging aloft. Ahead of a large low pressure system
that is expected to bring widespread rain and wind to the area
on Tuesday, some scattered showers may develop on Monday out
ahead of the northward-moving warm front. With dry air likely to
persist near the surface, total rain on Monday is expected to be
less than a tenth of an inch for most places.

On Tuesday, the Colorado low will move northeast and start to
occlude. Warm and moist Gulf of Mexico air will move into the
region ahead of the low, and widespread rain is expected to move
in on Tuesday (especially during the afternoon from south to
north). The pressure gradient is expected to tighten as the low
moves closer, and gusty east/northeast winds are expected to
accompany the rain as it moves through Tuesday into Wednesday.
Gusts to around 30 to 40 mph are expected, and some guidance
suggests locally higher gusts could be possible. As for rainfall
amounts, the forecast remains largely on track with most areas
receiving around an inch of rain and locally higher amounts
around 2" or slightly higher expected. Convective potential
still remains very low, but a few embedded rumbles of thunder
within the mostly steady rain can`t be ruled out. All-in-all, we
can expect a rainy and windy Tuesday and Wednesday with rainfall
accumulations that will be largely beneficial for the persistent
drought conditions. Some localized ponding of water may be
possible in the areas that receive the heaviest rain, but
overall rainfall rates at this time are not expected to be
supportive for much in the way of flooding except perhaps some
patchy and minor nuisance flooding.

Strong cold air advection and wraparound moisture moves in for
Thursday, and this is where we will likely see some snow start
to mix in with the rain. Overall precipitation rates are
expected to drop off quite a bit, so only light rain/snow are
expected Thursday into Friday. There`s more uncertainty in terms
of how cold it will actually get and thus precipitation type and
accumulations. Most model ensembles suggest light snowfall
amounts, if any at all as temperatures wobble back and forth
around freezing. There are a few members that suggest a few
inches of snow, and while such solutions do not appear likely at
this time, it`s important to note that this is still several
days out and the forecast could change. With that all said,
expect lingering mixed precipitation to end the week with some
potential for light snow accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A passing upper level wave is producing some showers at and in
the vicinity of INL. This will continue through the afternoon,
though VFR conditions are expected to prevail with dry air at
the surface. A stray shower could also affect HIB this
afternoon. Winds will gradually shift to southwesterly this
afternoon, then decrease in speed this evening and become
variable in direction with a weak cold front passing through.
Winds pick up from the northwest Sunday morning. VFR conditions
are expected through the period at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Breezy northeast winds will continue around the head of the lake
through this evening, leading to wind gusts to around 20 knots
and waves as high as 4 feet. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect through this evening. Winds will become lighter and
switch to southwesterly Sunday morning, then variable to
northwesterly Sunday night. As low pressure and rain approach
the region starting on Monday, winds will become breezy from the
northeast late Monday into Monday evening and will continue
strengthening into Tuesday. Wind gusts from 20 to 30 knots will
develop Monday night, then gales will become possible going into
Tuesday.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-
     145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS