National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDLH 172344
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
644 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering rain showers will slowly wane and exit the region tonight.
  Another 0.1-0.2” of rain is possible in the heavier showers.

- Cold front on Thursday brings with it temperatures 5-15 F
  cooler than normal for this time of year.

- Potential for a messy setup early next week as a shortwave
  moves through the area with temperatures hovering around
  freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Short Term:

An occluded low pressure that has been bringing us rain and
dreary weather for the last 24 hours will continue to impart
some final rain showers and drizzle before it moves off to the
northeast. As of 1pm, scattered rain showers are present across
North-Central Minnesota with the heaviest and more widespread
rain located near/along the Minnesota Arrowhead and into NW
Wisconsin along the South Shore. With strong SE flow aloft of an
airmass with PWATs near 0.8-0.9”, some locales along the North
Shore could see an additional 0.2” of rainfall through tonight
before the best lift and moisture transport moves north of the
border into Canada. Drier conditions will persist into tonight
with lows in the mid to upper 30s which is typical for this time
of the year.

Extended Range:

By midday Thursday, a cold front will completely move through
the area. Before the front moves through the area, areas east of
I-35 look to warm into the upper 40s in advance of the front.
However, once the front completely moves through the area by
afternoon, temperatures area wide will drop back into the mid
30s before bottoming out in the upper 20s/lower 30s early Friday
Morning. Both Friday and Saturday will be relatively similar in
how they play out with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper
30s and lower 40s. There is a low chance (20-30%) of some snow
showers late on Friday and into Saturday Morning but no notable
impacts are expected at this time. Sunday will be a bit on the
milder side with temperatures rebounding into the upper 40s and
lower 50s. The start of the next week is where models diverge on
their potential solutions. There is agreement that a shortwave
will move through the Northern Plains and into the Northern
Great Lakes sometime Monday and into Tuesday. With marginal cold
air and the potential for the event to traverse through the
night, there are concerns about precipitation types. With that
being said, it’s too far out to get into the weeds about this
storm system as it is still 5+ days out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

MVFR ceilings for most across NE Minnesota into NW Wisconsin,
with some MVFR visibility in the MN Arrowhead for the next few
hours as rain/drizzle exits east. VFR ceilings/visibilities
gradually work in from west to east with clouds scattering out
tonight for most outside of NW WI. There is a 10-20% chance for
IFR visibilities to develop in fog tonight at INL/HIB/DLH/HYR
due to moisture from the rain/drizzle from today, but
confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
Northwest winds this evening turn light out of the west tonight,
but increase on daytime Thursday with sustained winds of 12-17
knots and gusts of 20-25 knots, strongest in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Winds will turn from northeasterly into westerly tonight as the
low pressure that caused gales exits. Waves will remain high,
but will fall below 4 feet overnight. Winds and waves will pick
back up as the westerly increase Thursday afternoon. Westerly gales
become possible Friday as the pressure gradient increases again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ143>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe/KP
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Wolfe