Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-181200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024


...2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton
 ...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins...

The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has
implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic
river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
 Pine River
Midland          12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Tittabawassee River
Midland          24.0   25.0   28.0    12   22    9   21   <5    7
 Shiawassee River
Owosso            7.0    9.0   10.0    27   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Kearsley Creek
Davison          10.0   11.0   12.0    19   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Flint River
Flint            13.0   15.0   17.0     9    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Cass River
Cass City        14.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Vassar           14.0   15.0   18.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Frankenmuth      17.0   20.0   25.0    35   44    8   13   <5   <5
 Saginaw River
Saginaw          17.0   19.0   24.0    22   27    8   14   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
 Clinton River
Clinton Twp      16.0   17.0   19.0    17   17    7    8   <5   <5
MT Clemens       16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 North Branch Clinton River
Mt Clemens       15.0   16.0   18.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
 River Rouge
Detroit          15.0   18.0   20.0    26   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Middle River Rouge
Dearborn Hts     10.0   11.0   12.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Lower Rouge River
Dearborn         11.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Mill Creek
Dexter           12.0   13.0   14.0     9   14    7    8   <5    5
 Huron River
Hamburg           7.0    7.5    8.0    35   25   18   14    9    8
Ann Arbor        16.0   17.0   18.0    11   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
 River Raisin
Tecumseh         13.0   14.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Aadrian          18.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Blissfield      683.0  685.0  687.0    13   21    6    7   <5   <5
Dundee          650.0  652.0  653.0    12   18    6    8   <5    7
Monroe            9.0   10.0   11.0    13   21   <5    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

...PAST PRECIPITATION...
Even though January had about a week of arctic cold it was still well above
normal in temperatures.  Janauary also saw much above normal precipitation
with most being in the form of rain.  Detroit had a recorded January for
precipitation with 5.25 inches.  Snow fall was around to below normal.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
Most rivers are flowing from around to above normal.  Base flows are higher then
normal becuase of the warm temperatures in January that lead to just about total
snow melt of the pack.  Some river also eperienced flooding in January. River ice
is mostly nonexistant with mainly shoreline ice in spots.


...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
Late fall and early winter did see below normal precipitation but the high
precipitation and snow melt in January has moisten the upper zone of the soil.
Lower zones still remain drier then normal.  Frost depth are little to none.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
Todays system dropped about 2 to 5 inches of snow across the Saginaw Valley and
Thumb with up a quarter inch of liquid.  Before this system southeast Michigan was
basically void of a snow pack.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
The outlook for the next 8-14 days calls for above average temperatures
and below normal precipitation. The outlook for the rest of  Spring is for
near to above normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation.

...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
The January thaw has removed most of the snow pack across southeast Michigan
and removed any frost depths. The outlook for flooding along area rivers this
Spring is much below average, especially for moderate and major and would be
driven soley by excessve rainfall events.

This next Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be Feb 29.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX


$$


DRC


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