Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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199 FXUS63 KDVN 071751 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1251 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Squall line to move through early this morning. - Marginal risk for severe storms with this line. - Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Today: Squall line will continue to progress across the forecast area early this morning with the potential for 60 mph wind gusts possible (MRGL risk for severe). A few thunderstorms are still possible behind this line which should linger into northwest IL early this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Tonight: A few showers possible this evening otherwise a dry overnight hours. Cooler with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Wednesday: Low pressure races out of the southern Plains and into the OH Valley. However, severe storms with this system look to remain south of our forecast area and SPC has shifted the SLGT and ENH farther to the south somewhat. Our attention then turns to an upper low that will drop southeast out of the Dakotas into northwest IA. This is associated with a -20C h5 temperature cold core aloft. Enough instability and shear will be present to trigger scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening. Can`t rule out some of these storms to produce hail and strong gusty winds (MRGL severe level 1 of 5). Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday through early next week: Pattern change to a northwest flow as a deep trough sets up shop across the Great Lakes. Periodic disturbances in the flow will bring off and on showers and a few thunderstorms with almost daily chance pops. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows in the 40s for much of the extended. These readings are somewhat below normal for early May. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A cold front is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Iowa TAF sites early this afternoon. Conditions will quickly improve to VFR behind the front as MVFR ceilings clear. Showers and storms may develop in the vicinity of KBRL and KMLI through 21 UTC before the threat shifts to the east of the area. Southwesterly winds are forecast to diminish after 00 UTC. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Cousins