018
ACUS01 KWNS 020600
SWODY1
SPC AC 020559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today from
parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast from the southwest
to the Great Lakes, south and east of a low moving
east-northeastward in the vicinity of the U.S./Canadian border.  As
this occurs, a weak cold front will cross the central U.S., reaching
a position from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas by the end of
the period.

...Western North Texas vicinity...
Ongoing/weakening convection should be crossing eastern
Oklahoma/north Texas at the start of the period, with some
ramifications for subsequent destabilization potential ahead of the
advancing cold front -- particularly across Oklahoma.

With that said, ample destabilization is forecast to occur from the
southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas region southward, to
support new convective initiation by late afternoon.  A
likely/favored location for initial updrafts will likely be near the
cold front/dryline intersection, forecast in the vicinity of
southwestern Oklahoma/eastern portions of the Texas South Plains/the
Big Country region.  Initial/cellular convection will pose a risk
for very large hail, along with locally damaging gusts and possibly
a tornado or two, though limited to some degree by rather modest
shear.

With time, upscale growth may occur, with some models hinting that a
bowing MCS may shift eastward across North Texas through the
evening.  Some eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area is being
included in light of this model signal, though the aforementioned
lack of more robust flow suggests severe risk will remain somewhat
isolated.

...Upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes to eastern Kansas...
A weakening band of convection is forecast to be crossing
Iowa/northwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas at the start of the
period, in advance of the surface cold front.  Sporadic gusty winds
and marginal hail may occur with a couple of the lingering/stronger
storms.  Later, weak heating/modest destabilization within the warm
sector should support renewed convection near the advancing front
during the afternoon.  With stronger flow confined to the cool side
of the front, and limited instability, any occurrences of wind
and/or hail reaching severe levels should remain largely isolated,
with risk diminishing by evening.

...Southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana...
Indications are that an organized/potentially bowing MCS may be
moving east-southeastward across southeastern Texas at the start of
the period.  Prior to moving offshore, strong/locally severe wind
gusts will be possible during the first couple of hours of the
period.

..Goss.. 05/02/2024

$$