Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 121917
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Wildfire Outbreak Possible...

An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions
of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be
where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed
atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with
gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be
in the single digits.

Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support
large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates
fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end
of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile
for the date by tomorrow afternoon.

..Bentley.. 03/12/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/

...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US
longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky
Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across
the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from
central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to
Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface
dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low
afternoon relative humidity.

Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into
western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will
overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph).
Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain
critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk.
Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this
area remain critically dry.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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