852
FXUS66 KEKA 051130
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
430 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Light showers will continue today for mainly Humboldt
and Del Norte counties. Better coverage of light rainfall will
develop Monday with a weak front. Building high pressure will
increase northerly winds on Tuesday as a significant warming
begins that will span through at least late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated light showers are currently observed on radar
this early morning as a late season, cold upper trough exits the
region to the east. As flow transitions to zonal, additional showers
will be develop today mainly in Del Norte County, and also through
Humboldt. Much below average temperatures remain in the wake of the
low, though inland valley fog and lingering cloud cover will hold up
the temperatures for some. Clearing in Trinity County and southward
will allow for freezing to frost conditions tonight, thus Freeze
Watches and Frost Advisories are out. A weak frontal system will
clip the region on Monday, bringing light rainfall over mainly Del
Norte County where 0.25 to 0.5 inch is forecast. Much lighter values
can be expected down to Trinity and Humboldt counties, while Lake
and Mendocino counties will begin to experience warmer
daytime temperatures.

Tuesday will mark the first day of a significant warming trend
through the entire forecast area that will span through at least
late next week. Northerly winds will also increase on Tuesday as the
a strong ridge of high pressure takes shape. There is a 40 to 60%
probability of wind gusts over 35 mph Tuesday afternoon over exposed
coastal headlands and ridges. Winds will also turn breezy over the
higher terrain of Eastern Lake County Tuesday night through
Wednesday. As the ridge continues to amplify, an upper trough looks
to retrograde west into the Great Great Basin. This setup would be
favorable to generate offshore flow and further enhance the warming
temperatures late next week. Probabilities have been consistently
high (80 to 90%) for the inland valleys to exceed 80 degrees, and
50 to 75% chance to exceed 85 degrees in the warmest interior
valleys late next week. /JJW


&&

.AVIATION...A few showers remain across the north coast early this
morning. In general most areas will remain dry today but as
moisture increases through the day ahead of the next front,
drizzle or light showers may impact ACV and CEC bringing lowering
ceilings into MVFR and brief reductions in visibility. Mountain
cloud cover will bring reductions in visibility over the interior
in some areas but the primary terminals, such as in Ukiah, will be
mostly VFR. Southerly winds will increase along the Humboldt and
Del Norte coasts Monday morning and be gusty through the day,
especially at CEC, with light rain likely. /RPA


&&

.MARINE...Winds today will be primarily from the west as the next
front begins to approach the area. Southerlies will ramp up
overnight ahead of the next front, peaking around midday on Monday
with small craft conditions in the northern water zones. Seas
will be a mix of west- northwesterly mid-period swells and
southerly chop from the south winds on Monday. Quickly high
pressure will build in behind the front allowing winds to turn out
of the north and increase sharply. Gale force winds are likely in
the southern zones by Tuesday afternoon with very steep seas
building in response. The northerlies will persist for the work
week, decreasing later in the week as a thermal trough pushes off
the coast. /RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
     CAZ107-108.

     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ110-111-
     113-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to noon PDT Monday for
     PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon PDT Monday for
     PZZ470.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png