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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 170548
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1148 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Warm temperatures, dry conditions, and light afternoon breezes can
be expected through the remainder of the work week. High
temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday will be in the middle
to upper 80s across the lowlands, likely exceeding 90 degrees for
the El Paso area. By the weekend, a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will exist for eastern portions of the forecast
area, mainly focused over eastern Hudspeth and Otero Counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with quiet
and warm weather expected through the remainder of the work week.

The strong upper level system that impacted the region yesterday is
well off to our northeast over portions of the Upper Midwest. Zonal
flow and quiet weather has settled in across the Borderland Region
in it`s wake. This means warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
light afternoon breezes each day through the remainder of the work
week. Afternoon high temperatures will steadily climb each
afternoon, remaining 5-10 degrees above the seasonal average. In
fact, our warmest days will be Thursday and Friday where high
temperatures will likely exceed 90 degrees for the El Paso metro.

By Friday and into the weekend, a frontal boundary will dive south
across the Great Plains and High Plains region, banking up against
the eastern slopes of the Central NM Mountains by Friday
afternoon/evening. This in tandem with an approaching upper level
shortwave will lead to increased chances (20-30 percent PoPs) of
isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. For now,
these low-end rain/storms chances will be limited to eastern Otero
and Hudspeth counties where the deeper moisture value will lie.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VMC through forecast period under light northwest flow aloft.
Surface winds AOB 6 knots overnight, prevailing from the WSW 240-260
at 06-12 knots this afternoon. Skies SKC-FEW250 with greater high
clouds coverage to the southeast over Mexico and S TX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Fire weather conditions will be LOW to LOW-END ELEVATED through the
remainder of the work week. Min RH values will remain below critical
thresholds (<15 percent) across most of the area through Friday.
However, low level winds will be light to low-end breezy through
this period, staying below critical thresholds. Smoke ventilation
rates will be Very Good through Friday.

By the weekend, portions of NMZ113, especially within the Sacramento
Mtns along with eastern Hudspeth County will see an increase in
moisture values as a pseudo dryline will bank up along the
central NM mountain chains. This added moisture will lead to low-
end chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  56  87  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            53  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               48  87  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               46  82  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               36  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    48  84  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              44  76  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   43  85  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                43  82  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       53  85  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                44  87  45  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             51  88  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               51  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   51  87  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             47  83  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           54  85  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            43  83  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    44  86  47  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 48  85  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                46  82  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  41  75  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                40  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 38  70  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  42  77  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                46  83  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                43  83  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             38  77  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   41  79  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    43  82  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  77  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  45  79  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   45  83  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  45  83  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           46  84  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               47  78  50  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice