Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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908 FXUS64 KEWX 011939 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 239 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Key Points * Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon through tonight with wind and hail the main threats. Isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. * Heavy rainfall and flooding will possible for the eastern two- thirds of the area. * Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the Hill Country, I35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. Mostly cloudy skies prevail across South-Central Texas this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. Winds remain out of the southeast with speeds near 10-15 mph on average. Starting to see an uptick of shower activity across the area and as we progress into the afternoon, high-res model guidance is all consistently showing this activity growing in coverage and intensity. Some of this should bring some locally heavy rainfall and the possibility of a strong storms this afternoon and evening. The WRF/ARW suite of the high res models are much more bullish with rain amounts than the HRRR with some values near 5-7 inches in isolated places this afternoon. The 18z HRRR shows some pockets of 1-3 inches with the afternoon activity and think this solution should be the most favored one. However, even with the light returns on radar, activity is very efficient rain producers given PW values near 2 inches which is off nearly unheard of for this time of year. The focus for shower and thunderstorm activity late this evening and overnight will be out west as convection in West Texas possibly moves into the northern two-thirds of the area. Could see some severe storms with this activity with wind gusts then hail as the main risks. Heavy rainfall will also be possible with this activity with additional rainfall totals of 1-3 inches likely with some possible isolated higher amounts. We issued a Flood Watch earlier for portions of the Hill Country, I35 corridor, and Coastal Plains through 7 AM. Given this moist airmass it will not take much to produce heavy rainfall and will likely see some locations see isolated amounts near 5 inches and this could produce some flash flooding. All activity should be mostly east of the forecast area after 10 AM tomorrow with just some possible very isolated activity continuing tomorrow during the day. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s for most areas with some mid 90s near the Rio Grande. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A shallow upper level trough over the southwest will keep southwesterly flow over TX through the end of the week. A series of shortwave troughs will move through this pattern. Combined with daytime heating this will generate chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Sunday the upper pattern will become progressive and the trough will push into west TX. This will mean chances for convection through the day Sunday. None of this activity looks strong nor any rainfall excessive. A low amplitude ridge will push up from the Gulf bringing dry weather. This ridge will settle over the region for the first half of next week. This will lead to warming temperatures with highs reaching the lower to middle 90s over the eastern half of the CWA and upper 90s to near 105 over the west. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 IFR/MVFR ceilings can be expected for much of the period as low level moisture remains elevated across South-Central Texas. In addition, a a couple of periods of possible showers and storms can be expected. The two main windows are this afternoon and early evening then once again after 6z. Will show this timing in the TAFs. Slow improvement to ceilings can be expected late tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 68 83 71 86 / 70 50 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 83 71 85 / 70 40 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 84 72 87 / 70 30 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 68 82 70 84 / 80 30 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 95 76 97 / 30 10 0 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 82 71 84 / 80 50 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 68 83 70 89 / 70 20 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 84 71 86 / 70 40 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 83 73 85 / 70 50 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 83 72 87 / 70 30 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 71 84 73 89 / 60 30 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar- Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gillespie-Gonzales- Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Travis- Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...05 Aviation...29