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000
FXUS62 KFFC 161902
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

500mb analysis shows a shortwave ridge across the Gulf States.
The mid level ridging may begin to break down and become more
zonal tomorrow as a low moves into the Great Lakes and a trough
moves into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure will
continue through the overnight hours. A frontal boundary/outflow
will approach from the west tomorrow and potentially into
northwest portions of the CWA by late afternoon. The boundary will
then continue into central portions of the state, likely
stalling/dissipating late tomorrow night.

Hi-res models are producing a broken line of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the CWA
tomorrow afternoon/evening along the outflow/surface boundary. The
line dissipates/weakens as it pushes south of I-20. The models
keep the coverage of storms with this system fairly low, but are
indicating some potential for stronger thunderstorms. This seems
reasonable, if only for the fact the line is coming through close
to peak heating. If lapse rates steepen as the line moves through,
then the potential for strong/isold severe storms could increase.
The shear remains weak.

NListemaa


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The flow aloft will be characterized by quasi-zonal flow over the
Southeast while a closed low over south-central Canada on
Thursday shifts eastward and opens up to a trough over southeast
Canada on Saturday. The trough axis is progged to shift offshore
over the northwestern Atlantic Sunday into Monday, driving a cold
front across the forecast area as high pressure settles in.

Intermittent perturbations in the quasi-zonal flow will bring
influxes of moisture and a source of lift across the forecast
area, resulting in daily chances (25% to 55%) for showers Friday
through Sunday. Ensemble guidance is progging around 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE on Friday with less than 1000 J/kg on Saturday and Sunday,
so there is also a chance (25% to 35%) for thunderstorms as well.
Surface-to-500-mb bulk shear is progged to generally be weak
enough (40 kts or less) to preclude development of severe
thunderstorms. The QPF continues to look umimpressive with less
than 0.75" expected in general.

PoPs will taper off from west to east on Monday as the cold front
passes through, ushering in a dry, continental air mass and
attendant high pressure. Noticeably cooler air will move in from
northwest to southeast over the course of Saturday night through
Monday afternoon.

Martin


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR through the period. High/mid level clouds will mostly be
sct/bkn through the period. The winds should remain on the west
side, but will likely flirt with due south through the overnight
hours. Speeds should be 6-9kt or less.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

NListemaa


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  84  60  88 /  10  30  20  10
Atlanta         64  81  61  86 /  10  30  30  10
Blairsville     60  75  56  84 /  20  40  30  10
Cartersville    62  80  59  87 /  10  40  30  10
Columbus        62  84  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
Gainesville     63  81  61  86 /  10  30  30  10
Macon           61  85  63  88 /   0   0  20  10
Rome            61  79  59  85 /  20  40  30  20
Peachtree City  62  83  60  87 /  10  20  20  10
Vidalia         61  86  64  89 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...NListemaa