816
FXUS63 KFGF 120344
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1044 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather is expected today and again Sunday
  across much of the region as RH values fall into the 20 to
  30 percent range along with wind gusts up to 30 mph.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
  early evening for portions of far northeast ND and northwest
  Minnesota. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts to
  60 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The 7 day pattern will feature a tendency towards split flow,
with progressive flow across the Northern Plains. Within this flow
fast moving mid level shortwaves will bring periodic
shower/thunderstorm chances to the region, along with variable
high/low temperatures (within a standard deviation of seasonal
normals). At this point, there is not a signal in ensemble based
machine learning or model climatology for severe thunderstorms or
excessive rainfall next week.

Regarding showers/storms this afternoon-evening:

A mid level wave moving to the north this evening/tonight will push
a cold front into the region, and forcing will help lead to widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening
mainly in northwest MN (some signal farther west in CAMs). The air
mass is very dry, but there is some elevated CAPE forecast to
increase with steep lapse rates later this afternoon/early evening.
We ultimately may see a lot of activity on radar with minimal
precipitation reaching the surface (dry thunderstorm type activity).
Inverted-V type soundings and DCAPE near 1000 J/KG in our north may
support a few severe wind gusts to 60 mph.

Regarding fire weather today and Sunday:

Deep mixing and a slower recovery in BL Tds from the west has led to
RH values in the upper teens to 25% range across the Red River
Valley and locations east. Gusts 25-30 mph have occasionally be
reported, but the window for 3hr RFW criteria hasnsn`t be there and
near critical is expected through the early evening. For Sunday, the
post frontal air mass should bring lower Tds in (along with cooler
temps) but adjusting for biases, RH values are likely to once again
drop to the 20-25% range. North or northeast winds will tend to
favor higher gusts in the Red River VAlley with higher winds aloft
decreasing by the afternoon north to south. The result should be
near critical fire weather conditions again, with a 40% chance for
critical fire weather conditions in the northern Red River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Shower activity has mostly concluded though a few stray echos
remain through 09Z. Winds continue to turn north overnight with
increasing winds by mid morning and gusts in the low to mid 20s
by the afternoon. While minimal cloud cover tomorrow could see
some Canadian smoke moving in behind tonights front.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT