Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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830 FXUS63 KFGF 020251 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic bouts of rain over the next week, with the next one providing the entire region rainfall on Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Rain has so far been reported in Bismarck, but the echoes over our area have to fight through dry air to get to the surface. Virga will likely be possible with these echoes at first and then transition into drizzle and rain. That transition should happen sometime before tomorrow morning. Forecast remains on track otherwise. UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Showers are pushing to the east from central ND. Rain will begin from west to east into tomorrow as the shortwave progresses. Forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery indicates a deep trough across the western CONUS slowly propagating to the east, along with a developing upper low across the northern Rockies. Ensemble guidance in good agreement depicting the upper low to slowly propagate east across southern Canada, with stronger pieces of energy rotating around this main feature into Friday. During this time, other upper level waves ejecting from the western CONUS trough will remain south of our region. Ridging into the weekend and related dry weather will be replaced by another slow moving system that will bring rain chances next week. ...Periodic bouts of rain... Impacts from these periodic bouts of rain will be minimal with the potential for excessive rainfall very low. Main impacts will be outdoor activities such as baseball games, picnics, agriculture planting, etc. For tonight into Thursday, an upper level wave rounding the base of the main upper low will bring forcing to much of the region with widespread rainfall. The track of this feature will determine where the strongest forcing and highest rainfall totals take place, which most ensemble guidance indicates will be NE ND into far NW MN with less amounts to the east/southeast. For NE ND into far NW MN, the 25th/75th percentile range of forecasted precipitation is 0.75-1.00 inches. For west central Minnesota, the 25th/75th percentile range of forecasted precipitation is 0.25 to 0.40 inches. For Thursday late afternoon/evening, a narrow band of instability will advect into central ND, with convection possible along any low level boundaries that may exist. Unsure how far east convection may make it, but synoptic pattern would support very small hail or maybe even a funnel or two. For Friday, aside from isolated cold pool showers not much for forcing. There will be a banded precip event across central MN, with latest ensemble guidance suggesting this will remain to the southeast of this forecast area. Lots of uncertainty next week with details, but a very high chance for at least some rainfall. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions right now, will deteriorate into MVFR or IFR conditions into Thursday. Winds will be variable at first into Thursday morning, then stabilize out of the SE and increase to 10 - 15 knots sustained in the afternoon. Clouds and RA will lower visibility during the day, as low as 3 SM in some TAF sites. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...AH DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...AH