Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240520
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 PM MST Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern returns to northern Arizona
with colder temperatures, gusty winds, and periods of rain and snow
showers for this weekend. The unsettled weather persists into next
week, with additional chances for rain and snow.

&&

.UPDATE...Rain and snow showers were on the increase and spreading
eastward across northern Arizona during the mid evening hours,
pretty much in line with the current forecast package. We updated
the cloud cover over northeast Arizona which was staying mainly
clear a bit longer than forecast. Otherwise, accumulating snow
above 6000 feet with rain showers at lower elevations appears on
track for tonight and on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /438 PM MST/...clouds and southwest winds have been
on the increase today in advance of the next weather system
moving inland across the Intermountain West. Wind gusts have
ranged from about 30 to 40 mph across much of northern Arizona.
Peak gust potential may be hampered slightly by cloud cover this
afternoon. A few light radar echoes are just starting to show up
from the Western Mogollon Rim across the Coconino Plateau to the
Grand Canyon region. We expect the showers to increase in coverage
this evening and spread south and east through the overnight
hours. The heaviest precipitation is expected after dark through
early Sunday morning. Wind Advisories remain in effect through 6
PM MST/7 PM MDT this evening. Winds will decrease in speed tonight
but we`ll still see gusts up to 35 mph. Winter Weather Advisories
begin at 5 PM MST across northwestern Arizona and 11 PM
MST/midnight MDT for central/eastern Arizona areas above 6000
feet.

The wind and winter highlights remain untouched and the main
forecast updates today were to nudge precipitation/snow
accumulation forecasts up slightly, which is in line with the
model guidance trends, especially today`s high-resolution
guidance. We retained the lowered snow ratios during the day
Sunday as a wetter/heavier snow should limit accumulation
potential in addition to temperatures near/above freezing near
the ground. Despite the accumulation trend going up slightly,
melting on surfaces and between showers will make it hard to get a
good measurement. We do anticipate periods of difficult road
conditions especially Sunday morning, but there will likely be
melting periods as well. After the heavier and more organized band
of precipitation moves through tonight, there will be a lull
early Sunday morning. By midday Sunday, the core of up the upper
low moves into Arizona promoting additional development that will
last through early evening. Gusty winds will again develop on
Sunday mainly across eastern Arizona where additional advisories
might be needed. Winter-like temperatures are expected Sunday,
with high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees colder than today.

A cool and unsettled pattern continues through early next week as
the longwave trough slowly progresses eastward. Another uptick in
shower activity is expected with a shortwave passage Tuesday
afternoon when additional light snow accumulations are possible. A
few days of drier and more mild conditions are forecast
Wednesday/Thursday with an even stronger, colder, and wetter storm
system possible for next weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 24/06Z through Monday 25/06Z...A frontal band
will move NW to SE across the region tonight, exiting at the New
Mexico border from 13Z-15Z Sunday. Conditions along the frontal band
will produce several hours of MVFR/IFR due to CIGS/SHSN/SHRA/-TSRA.
Outside of the frontal band, mainly VFR will persist, although CIGS
will be generally below 6-8kft AGL and spotty showers are possible.
Some improving conditions Sunday, convective activity will produce
areas MVFR/IFR in CIGS/SHSN/SHRA/-TSRA, especially in the afternoon.
Sfc winds decreasing tonight, to S-SW10-20g25kts, then increasing
again AFT 18Z Sunday, SW-W15-25g30-35kts. Improving conditions AFT
02Z Monday.

OUTLOOK...Monday 25/06Z through Wednesday 27/06Z...Expect improving
conditions Sunday night and into Monday morning, then SCT convective
showers redevelop, especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Heavier showers will produce periods of MVFR/IFR in CIGS/SHSN/SHRA
and -TSRA. This pattern of an overnight lull and redevelopment then
repeats Monday night and into Tuesday. Sfc winds SW-W15-25kts, but
especially in the daytime.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Rain and snow showers, along
with isolated thunderstorms, will spread southeast overnight. Rain
and snow could be heavy at times. A brief lull in precipitation is
expected early Sunday, before increasing again during the afternoon.
Chances decrease Sunday night and Monday, becoming more scattered.
Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph tonight will become more westerly on
Sunday, with gusts to 35 mph. Winds on Monday will be lighter and
westerly, at 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Cold and unsettled weather continues for
Tuesday, with additional chances for rain and snow. Drier and warmer
weather returns Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph
with gusts to around 30 mph Tuesday turn back westerly on Wednesday
at 10 to 20 mph. Stronger southwest winds return for Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST Sunday for AZZ004-015.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ Monday for
AZZ011-017.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST Sunday for AZZ016.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/MCT
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.