Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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906 FXUS65 KFGZ 292322 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 422 PM MST Mon Apr 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week with breezy afternoon winds. Temperatures will generally remain near normal. Another low pressure system could affect northern Arizona this weekend, with wind gusts up to 35-45 mph possible by Sunday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...Dry and quasi-zonal flow will continue over the southwestern U.S. through the week. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 15-25 mph will be possible each afternoon through the end of the week. Temperatures will generally remain near normal. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength and evolution of the next system forecast to affect northern Arizona Sunday. The operational GFS is by far the most aggressive with this system, progging the low to strengthen as it digs into the southern California coast. The operational ECMWF is more mellow with this system, keeping it an open wave as it passes harmlessly to the north. The ensemble mean solution also keeps this low relatively weaker than the operational GFS, so will follow with the ensemble mean for now. Regardless, wind gusts should kick up into the 35-45 mph range by Sunday afternoon with continued dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 30/00Z through Wednesday 01/00Z...VFR conditions with SW winds 10-20 kts, becoming light and variable after 03Z. SW winds increase to 10-15 kts after 18Z. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/00Z through Friday 03/00Z...VFR conditions with SW winds 10-20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Dry conditions with warming temperatures. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph this evening and Tuesday afternoon, with minimum afternoon RH 10-20%. Gusty southwest winds on Wednesday, with afternoon gusts 30-40 mph. Thursday through Saturday...Slightly cooler temperatures Thursday...then warming Friday and Saturday and remaining dry. Northeast winds Thursday morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. Southwest winds 15 to 25 MPH on Friday and Saturday afternoons. Afternoon minimum RH 10-20%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...TM AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff