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000
FXUS64 KFWD 131009
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
509 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Outside of minor sky cover and wind adjustments, the below short
term discussion still remains representative of the forecast this
weekend.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/The Weekend/

Windy and warm conditions will prevail during the daytime hours,
with breezy conditions at night over the weekend. An upper ridge
aloft will move very little and will keep the atmosphere well
capped and rain-free. Periodic mid level impulses will traverse
the ridge with waves of high clouds. That`ll be the case this
morning as a broken high cloud canopy eventually shifts southward
with the passing of the first of these impulses. We can`t rule out
some very high-based virga through the period, but I don`t expect
anything to impact anything more than some turbulence to commercial
aircraft aloft.

A 40-50 kts LLJ evolving from North Texas into eastern Oklahoma
the Ozarks late late this evening will assist stratus northward
after midnight and through the remainder of the morning hours
Sunday. These winds just above the surface will veer more
southwesterly after daybreak Sunday and confine the majority of
the stratus across Central and eastern North Texas on Sunday
morning. The combination of the periodic high clouds and stratus
Sunday will help to keep high daytime temperatures somewhat cooler
versus areas further north and west Sunday afternoon.

Lows in the mid to upper 50s this morning will be even warmer
Sunday morning with low temperatures remaining in the lower to mid
60s thanks to the stratus and higher surface dew points
surpassing the 60 degree mark. High temperatures are expected to
remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal values for mid-April and
generally range from the upper 70s across our East Texas counties
to well into the 80s further west. The cooler temperatures in the
East will be attributed to lingering cloudiness into the afternoon
hours. Meanwhile, areas west of US 281 and across the Big Country
could surpass the 90 degree mark Sunday afternoon thanks to more
hours of sunshine/insolation with little impact from the morning
stratus surge.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 221 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/
/Monday Onward/

A deep upper low will be transiting the Intermountain West by the
end of the weekend, contributing to lee cyclogenesis and the
sharpening of a Pacific cold front across West Texas. After
several days of southerly return flow, rich moisture content will
be in place preceding this boudnary`s eastward advance, and
convective development will occur along it from Nebraska to Texas
late Monday afternoon and evening. For us locally, initial
development will occur upstream of the forecast area, with
convection largely absent from North Texas until late Monday
evening or Monday night.

As initial supercellular convection eventually undergoes some
consolidation in portions of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma,
a more linear structure may attempt to develop as activity begins
to enter North Texas. However, due to the strongest upper-level
dynamics remaining well north of us in the Central Plains, it is
likely that moderate or strong capping will still be present,
especially when aided by a diurnal increase in SBCIN after dark.
For this reason, it is possible, or perhaps even probable, that
much of this activity will be on a downward trend by the time it
enters the forecast area. While it would be premature to dismiss
or downplay the possibility of severe weather at this juncture,
the potential does seem to have decreased over the course of the
past couple of days due to the presence of much stronger capping
in place than guidance had indicated when this was within the day
4-7 forecast period. There is certainly still a potential for
showers and storms as the Pacific front does eventually push
through the area Monday night and Tuesday morning, but the
coverage/intensity of convection accompanying it remains very
questionable at this stage.

Some convective activity is likely to linger into Tuesday morning
near and east of I-35 as the Pacific front slows and pivots,
while eventually becoming stalled across portions of Southeast
Texas late in the day. Drier air behind the boundary will lead to
a rain-free and warmer midweek period with highs in the mid and upper
80s. However, some shower and thunderstorm chances look to return
towards the end of the workweek with a cold frontal intrusion.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
Will add in MVFR cigs for all airports, including the DFW D10
terminals toward 12z Sunday. Otherwise, the below 06z discussion
remains representative of TAF trends today.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/

VFR with periodic high cloudiness AoA FL250 through this evening.
SSE surface winds 10 to 15 kts will become 15 to 20 kts by midday
and into the evening hours. Occasional gusts to between 30 and 35
kts are anticipated thanks to mixing and a continued tight
pressure gradient.

In the extended period (late tonight)...
MVFR cigs are expected to surge rapidly N/NE after 06z Sunday and
impact Waco Regional Airport by/before 09z, while impacting areas
from the the DFW 10 airports by 12z. With confidence on timing
for DFW not high at this juncture, I`ll address tonight`s stratus
on the 12z TAFs later this morning.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  63  83  66  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                79  62  81  65  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               80  60  80  64  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              82  61  84  64  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            82  62  81  65  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              83  64  82  67  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             79  61  79  64  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           80  62  81  65  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              79  62  81  64  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       84  60  88  64  83 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$