113
FXUS63 KGID 191134
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe storms possible early this
  morning. More storms possible (up to near 60% chance) during
  the day today.

- Storms may be severe late this afternoon through this evening
  with large hail and damaging winds.

- Severe storms are again possible mainly Monday night. Large
  hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky
Mountains. A shortwave trough is moving over south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Upper lift with this
trough has increased along with mid-level instability across the
area. A line of storms is currently moving eastward across northern
Kansas and southern Nebraska. These storms will have the potential
to become strong to marginally severe given the parameters
previously mentioned. Additional storm development is expected today
once this initial line moves east of the area. There is uncertainty
as to where this additional development will occur and the severity
of it. More storms are expected late this afternoon into this
evening and will primarily affect north central Kansas but could
impact parts of southern and central Nebraska. These storms may be
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.
Storms may continue into the early part of the night tonight. There
is some uncertainty regarding high temperatures today due to
uncertainty regarding clouds and storm coverage; however, expecting
highs today to be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures tonight will
mostly be in the 50s with some lower 60s.

Monday and Monday night...

The upper trough to the west will dig southward on Monday.
Northeasterly winds will be across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas on Monday. High temperatures will
be in the 70s and 80s. While there is a slight chance (15% to 25%)
of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Monday, the storms
are mainly expected Monday evening and night. The highest chances
(up to 95%) will be generally along and north of I-80 Monday night.
Upper level lift will increase across the area Monday night as the
upper trough moves closer. A cold front associated with the upper
trough will move into the area Monday night. CAPE, wind shear, and
instability will also be fairly high so severe storms are possible.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with
these storms. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to range
from the low 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Saturday night...

Gusty northwest winds are expected on Tuesday as the cold front
moves through the area. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to
range from the low 60s to low 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible on Tuesday with the highest chances (up to around 75%)
during the morning hours. Chances of showers and storms (15% to
around 35%) remain Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will range from the low 40s to low 50s. High temperatures on
Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Southerly
winds will return by Wednesday night as the surface high moves east
of the area. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid 40s
to low 50s. An upper trough will extend from the West Coast to the
northern Plains on Thursday. A shortwave trough is expected to move
over south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
This will result in increasing chances (15% to around 20%) of
showers and storms during the day on Thursday. Chances increase (up
to near 40%) Thursday night. High temperatures on Thursday will be
in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures Thursday night will
mainly be in the 50s. A cold front will move into the area on Friday
with high temperatures in the low 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures
Friday night will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures on
Saturday will be similar or slightly cooler than those on Friday.
Low temperatures Saturday night will likewise be similar to those
from the previous night. Chances of showers and thunderstorms (15%
to near 50%) will continue Friday through Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Winds will mostly be out of the southeast but will be somewhat
variable. Thunderstorms are possible through the period. Low
ceilings are possible this morning but confidence is low. Low
ceilings are again possible tonight with higher confidence.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt