721
FXUS65 KGJT 301107
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
507 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A system will bring rain showers and mountain snow to the
  northern half of the CWA this morning. Snow accumulations of
  1-3 inches are possible.

- Another system brings more precipitation to the area on
  Wednesday.

- Afternoon winds will remain gusty this week, as a series of
  disturbances along the jet stream impact the region.

- A brief cool spell on Thursday in the wake of a cold front
  will drop temperatures, before things warm back up heading
  into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A shortwave trough is currently passing just to our north. It has
pushed a cold front into the region, which is working through
northwest Colorado. There are scattered showers associated with the
front, but the rates are mostly light. As this precip moves
into the northern mountains rates and amounts increase and
elevations above 9 kft could get several inches of snow by late
morning. Most of the valleys dry out by sunrise. Elsewhere is
looking at partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and highs similar
to yesterday. Gusty winds are also possible given the jets
associated with this system. As that jet aloft pivots tomorrow
we become positioned under the right entrance region. Therefore
we will see another slug of moisture come up from the southwest.
The next shortwave drops in from the northwest and brings yet
another cold front through the region. That along with the
moisture results in scattered showers and storms mainly in the
afternoon. The coverage of showers will reach further south than
this current system, so south of I-70 included. Highs may be a
touch cooler given the extra cloud cover and showers around. The
mountains will end up with the highest amounts and snow levels
hang near 8-10 kft. Winds increase even more with this second
trough so expect gusty winds in general. As typically, showers
may promote strong gusts down to the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A cold front dives into the region Wednesday night and wraps up a
week long cycle of repeated shortwaves rippling around the southern
periphery of broad cyclonic flow anchored over the Canadian
Provinces. Cold air with this front and a nighttime arrival will
allow for a few more inches of snow on the higher peaks of the
Central Mountains and northward to the Park Range and Flat Tops.
Temperatures will take a 10 degree downward hit on Thursday
morning`s lows, as well as the afternoon highs with this front.
Breezy conditions in the wake of the front will keep gusty winds on
most of our high terrain here on the West Slope throughout the day
Thursday. The strongest winds will favor the Divide. A secondary
wave reappears Friday with some more precipitation chances for the
northern mountains. This one looks brief and likely yields just
scattered shower activity. Temperatures also rebound quickly Friday
in the gusty southerly flow ahead of the incoming shortwave. A weak
transitional ridge quiets things down Saturday and lets temperatures
inch up another notch in the next warm up. The warm up precedes a
low that models are progging to come ashore somewhere out west
Sunday. Given the current solutions, this one could start the work
week off with widespread showers Monday morning across the Four
Corners and northward...or just glance us from the north and likely
deliver a pattern not unlike we`ve seen the past week. Confidence is
really low in the outcomes with this storm. For now, a brief
cooldown Thursday followed by a warm up heading into the weekend
looks like the plan, as spring yo-yo`s back and forth here on the
West Slope.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Showers will exit the area over the next few hours resulting in
VFR conditions at most sites. These conditions will hold through
the end of the period. Afternoon gusts are expected. High clouds
and eventually mid clouds build over the region later today and
tonight ahead of the next system.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT