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000
FXUS66 KHNX 132011
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
111 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A steep drop in temperatures this weekend before rebounding
next week.

2. A disturbance will move through Central California this
weekend, resulting in cooler temperatures, a chance for rain in
the San Joaquin Valley, and snow above 6,000 feet in the Sierra
Nevada and Kern County Mountains.

3. A few strong thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon and
evening.

4. Strong wind potential continues today across the ridge tops
of Central California.

5. A significant warming trend is forecast across the San
Joaquin Valley next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A slow moving storm system is bringing valley rain this
afternoon, with gusty winds along the west side hills. Snow will
begin to fall later this afternoon in the Sierra Nevada and Kern
Mountains later this afternoon Snow levels are currently in the
6,500-7,000 foot range. Snow levels will drop overnight tonight
to around 4500 feet. There may be a brief window for light
snowfall over Tejon Pass early tomorrow morning, but most of the
moisture associated with this cold front will have pushed out
of the area by then. As the front slowly makes its way eastward,
the winds along the west side hills will diminish. Snow in the
Sierra Nevada is forecast to continue to fall through the
morning hours Sunday. Probabilistic guidance shows that
Lodgepole has a 66% chance of seeing at least a foot of snow
through the event. Huntington Lake by contrast has a 34% chance
of at least a foot of snow.

There also will be cool air aloft behind the front... Models
initially were bullish that this afternoon would feature
thunderstorms, however, that risk has somewhat diminished due to
the front this morning becoming nearly stationary. There is
some risk for convection by the late afternoon/evening hours,
but the risk seems for thunderstorms in the valley looks more
likely by Sunday afternoon. Any thunderstorm that forms in the
valley tomorrow and traverses eastward into the mountains has
the potential to bring additional snowfall in the Sierra Nevada
tomorrow above the snowline. The shower and thunderstorm
activity is forecast to cease late Sunday night. As the upper
low moves further inland, onshore gradients are forecast to
strengthen, and high res model guidance show an uptick and winds
below the Kern Passes early Monday morning.

Ensemble guidance is consistently showing high pressure ridge
developing over the Eastern Pacific, and spreading over Central
California through the week next week. This indicates much
warmer temperatures are on the way. Blended model guidance shows
afternoon highs being a cool in the low 60s tomorrow, with a
rapid upward trend towards the mid 80s by Wednesday in the San
Joaquin Valley. Thursday and Friday look to be the warmest days
of the work week. Here are NBM probabilities for afternoon highs
reaching or exceeding 88*F for select locations in the San
Joaquin Valley next Thursday:



&&


.AVIATION...
Rain in the San Joaquin Valley through 18z Sunday may lead to
reduced visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
across the Central California interior for at least the next 24
hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  04/12/2024 15:05
EXPIRES: 04/13/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for CAZ300-308-313.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ323-325>331-333-334-336.
&&

$$

ab

weather.gov/hanford