Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 281424
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
924 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 924 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High pressure will center close to the Tennessee Valley today,
keeping cooler but dry conditions around. The high clouds seen
earlier this morning have exited the area and we are left with
sunny skies and current temps in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Despite
clear skies, northerly winds will keep highs limited to the low to
mid 60s this afternoon. Min RH values will drop below 30% in some
area, and combined with wind gusts up to 15-20mph could lead to
elevated fire concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A good setup for radiational cooling tonight due to a clear sky
and dry air mass as temperatures will drop off quickly after
sunset and eventually settle into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some
patchy frost may develop around daybreak Friday morning, but it
will not be widespread enough to warrant the issuance of an
Advisory at this time. Additionally, the dry air mass and a slight
bit of mixing overnight may be also be mitigating factors.

An upper ridge will shift eastward and build into the Deep South
region Friday into the upcoming Easter holiday weekend. As winds
veer back to the south, a pronounced warm-up will take place as
highs return to the lower 70s Friday and the mid/upper 70s on
Saturday. Clouds may begin to increase on Easter Sunday from
convection that is developing well to the west of the areas ahead
of a developing low pressure system. Still, we`ll have plenty of
sunshine to enjoy and with deep southerly flow, high temperatures
will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Monday will be a day of transition as high pressure gets squeezed
to the south and east as the next low pressure system begins to
take shape over the central/southern Plains. Ensembles still
differ considerably on the evolution and track of this system (and
its associated cold front). However, guidance is hinting at a
period of active weather for portions of the Ozarks, mid-
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, and Mid South region Monday
into Monday night. While mild/dry weather will continue here on
Monday (highs in the lower 80s), cloud cover will steadily
increase Monday evening/night and low to medium chances (30-60%)
for showers were introduced to the forecast. As the low pressure
system tracks NE/ENE, a cold front will sweep into the region on
Tuesday, slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms
will exist. The evolution of this system, including the prefrontal
mesoscale environment and the timing/track of key synoptic
features will dictate any prospects for strong to severe
thunderstorms. As mentioned earlier, this system will be monitored
over the coming days and updates will be given as details become
clearer and models comes into better agreement. In wake of the
front, a much cooler air mass will arrive by midweek, dropping
highs back into the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions and clear skies will prevail through tonight.
Northerly winds will increase this morning to between 10-15 knots,
with gusts to 20-25 knots. This will be short-lived, as winds are
forecast to decrease through mid-afternoon to between 5-10 knots.
Light and variable winds are then anticipated by this evening and
overnight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26


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