Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 261146
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
646 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018
Disorganized weather map this morning as the eastern half of the
CONUS is under the impact of three different upper lows. The
closest one is just to the southeast, responsible for some showers
across the southern tier of the state. Precip is expected to stay
just out of ILX CWA as the low and associated cloud cover moves
off to the southeast, resulting in a fair amount of sunshine for
Central IL. With sunny skies, light winds and temperatures
warming into the 60s this afternoon, may end up mixing down a
sizable layer of much drier air. MOSGuide a little drier with the
dewpoints, reflecting this trend. Have leaned the forecast a
little closer to that solution. Tonight is a continuation of the
milder forecast, warming to the mid 40s overnight even as a weak
front moves through the region. The remains of the forecast has
another frost potential, a cold front, a significant warm up, and
another round of stormy weather concerns to wrap up the 7 day
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Going into Friday, the weak cold front tonight does little to hold
back the temps from climbing into the mid/upper 60s tomorrow. The
front overnight into tomorrow morning is little more than a wind
shift. However, a reinforcing shot of colder air moves into the
region tomorrow night/Sat. GFS and NAM are being a little more
aggressive with the precip dropping into the northwesterly flow,
particularly north of I-74 east of PIA. The blended forecast has
brought back low chance pops to the forecast for tomorrow night.
The threat should be short lived as the pattern clears out by
morning, and the colder air settles in and keeps the highs on
Saturday in the upper 50s/lower 60s. The more significant impact
of the cooler airmass will be Sunday morning. Overnight clearing,
and light and variable winds will turn into a efficient
radiational cooling overnight. Will need to watch this time frame
for a frost threat given the start of the growing season in the
southern half of the state.

Forecast remains dry through the remainder of the weekend as
another slow warming trend kicks in. Ridging at 500mb and through
the mid levels sets up over the center of the country this
weekend, drifting into the Midwest by the beginning of the work
week. With the ridge drifting east, the more southwesterly flow
pushes 850mb temps from below 0C Sat to 10-12C in the Mon/Tues
time frame. Should this pattern continue, temps into the upper
70s/low 80s should start the week. Of course, with the warmer
temperatures and southwesterly flow into the region, the next
pattern shift brings chances for showers and thunderstorms going
into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become light and variable for a time this morning into early
afternoon, before a shift to a light WNW wind under 8 kts develops
into at least the northwestern sites KSPI, KBMI, KPIA. Winds will
be too light through tonight at KCMI-KDEC to determine wind
direction at this time.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...37


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