193
FXUS63 KILX 080450
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong thunderstorms have redevelop east of I-55 this
  afternoon, with some possibly becoming severe with hail and
  tornadoes possible.

- Wednesday afternoon severe event continues to show the highest
  probability for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes
  focusing along and south of the I-70 corridor. However, the
  threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes is also
  possible between I-70 and I-72/Danville, with the probability is
  lower.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A severe threat will continue south of I-70 for the next hour or
two but then will end for the remainder of the overnight hours.
02Z SPC mesoanalysis indicates a tight instability gradient is in
place over SE Illinois with MLCAPE values quickly ramping up to
around 3000-3500 J/kg. Very strong deep layer shear in excess of
60kts is also in place and supports the potential for a few
stronger storms including supercells. Instability gradient is
progged to sag south of the forecast area over the next couple
hours and will end the threat for severe storms locally.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Convection will be ongoing across eastern parts of the CWA by 4
pm. Some of the storms could be severe and the tornado watch has
already been issued for areas east of I-55, including Mclean Co.
Additional counties will likely be cleared before the main
issuance of the forecast....by 4 pm. The boundary associated with
these storms will quickly move east late this afternoon and by 7
pm most of the area will likely be out of any convection threat.
Our far southeast counties will continue for a couple of hours in
the early evening, then dry weather is expected through the night
and early tomorrow morning. Another round of strong to severe
convection is expected tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening as
mid level troughing and southwest flow continues. Our CWA will
remain on the northern edges of the threat area but large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes will also be possible south of I-70.
A smaller threat for severe weather also expected to the north of
I-70 and south of I-72/Danville. After the precip tonight, lighter
winds and clear skies will lead to some fog development. Patchy
fog is possible across eastern IL, with areas of fog along and
south of I-70.

Temps will remain on the warmer side tonight and tomorrow but
become slightly cooler tomorrow night.


Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

As the low pressure pulls away, an inverted trough will rotate
through northern IL with showers across northern parts of the CWA.
The mid level trough will also move through Thur night, but
showers will have waned at that point. The CWA will remain in
northwest type flow the remainder of the long term period...Friday
through Tuesday. A few weak disturbances will move through the
area during this period with only small chances of precip
expected. Temps through the period will start off cooler with
highs in the 60s Thur through Sunday. Warmer temps in the 70s will
return for Mon and Tue.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions and light and variable winds are expected across
central Illinois overnight. A warm front will lift into portions
of central Illinois during the day Wednesday resulting in
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the
afternoon and evening. SE winds will pick up during the afternoon
and evening with gusts to around 20-25 kt.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$