000
FXUS63 KILX 150446
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will stick around through
  midweek. Daily highs will be 15-20 degrees above normal.

- A strong storm system will bring an active weather period
  Tuesday into Wednesday, including gusty winds and scattered
  severe storms.

- Temperatures turn cooler later this week, potentially posing a
  threat to sensitive vegetation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Frontal boundary slowly dropping through the area this evening,
but with a very dry airmass, no showers or storms will develop
along the front. Clear skies will then continue tonight and
through tomorrow. Dewpoints are in the middle 50s across the area
and with winds of 5-10 mph, thing temps will definitely fall into
the lower to middle 50s overnight. Current forecast has a good
handle on this so no update planned at this time.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A cold front is stretched from northern Indiana into eastern Iowa
this afternoon. Out ahead of the front southwest flow has allowed
temperatures to surge into the upper 70s to low 80s, which is
near record warmth for this time of the year. In fact, some
locations may tie or break records today with temperatures as of 3
pm only within a few degrees of records at Peoria, Champaign, and
Bloomington (see climate section below). The front will slowly
sag south tonight then stall out in southern Illinois going into
Monday, turning winds to the north behind it and dropping
nighttime lows into the 50s. Drier air in the low to mid-levels
will keep the FROPA passage dry aside from a few mid to high
clouds.

Temperatures stay mild going into the start of the new week as upper
ridging spills into the Midwest states. Further west, an upper
trough will barrel into the Midwest states from the southwest US,
bringing a more active weather period. At the surface, a low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and track through Nebraska as it
deepens Monday night. The aforementioned cold front will lift north
as a warm front later on Monday/Monday night. CAMS suggest scattered
storms will develop along the front late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. Capped forecast soundings during this time indicate
anything that develops with the front would be elevated, perhaps
posing a threat for some hail.

The warm front will lift north of the forecast area on Tuesday, with
strong southerly winds developing behind it. Wind gusts look to peak
between 30-40 mph Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities for wind gusts
exceeding 45 mph are rather low, so the likelihood for a Wind
Advisory is also low. The low`s cold front will approach from the
west later Tuesday afternoon or evening as the surface low enters
Iowa, bringing another round of thunderstorms and the threat for
some severe weather. Surface dewpoints look to climb into the low
60s by Tuesday afternoon combined with air temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Guidance suggest marginal amounts of CAPE
(~1000 J/kg or less) will develop by Tuesday afternoon, that is if
enough heating overcomes the stable airmass leftover from morning
activity. A 70-80 kt mid-level jet will nose into the middle
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, placing the left exit region
overhead and overall increasing large-scale ascent. This paired
with the approaching cold front will lead to strong wind shear,
supporting storm organization. Primary threats within any of
storms that do develop will be damaging winds gusts and large
hail. A tornado threat is not out of the question, but the higher
threat for that will be closer to the low`s triple point in Iowa.

The surface low will lift into Wisconsin/Great Lakes Region on
Wednesday as the cold front works into Indiana by midday Wednesday.
Winds will remain strong behind the front, with west winds gusting
to 40-45 mph. Temperatures cool off slightly behind the front,
though look to stay near normal values for mid April in the 60s to
low 70s. A stronger cold front will bring even cooler temperatures
and another shot at precipitation later this week with a ~1025 mb
surface high settling in behind it. High temperatures going into the
weekend look to be about 5-10 degrees cooler than normal, with
overnight lows potentially dipping down into the 30s. This could
pose a threat for any sensitive vegetation, especially if we dip
down cool enough to get frost formation.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs with
mostly clear skies through tomorrow, then broken high clouds will
move over PIA and BMI during the evening, with broken mid clouds
around 15kft moving over SPI, DEC, and CMI...also during the
evening. Winds will be light overnight but also variable as the
sfc boundary still slowly moves through the area and a sfc ridge
moves toward the state. Tomorrow morning, winds will become
northeast around 8-11kts and then during the evening, become more
easterly at 12kts.

Auten

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Record highs for today and Monday:

Location            Today           Monday
--------          ---------       ---------
Bloomington       84 (2010)       85 (2003)
Champaign         84 (2010)       84 (2002)
Decatur           88 (1941)       85 (2002)
Lincoln           87 (2006)       85 (2003)
Peoria            85 (2003)       87 (2002)
Springfield       89 (2006)       86 (2002)

Geelhart


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$