Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 221054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
554 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Weak upper disturbance tracking southeastward out of the Northern
Plains will generate enough lift to spread clouds and perhaps a
few light rain showers into portions of central Illinois today.
Based on the track of the wave, it appears the showers will be
confined to locations along/southwest of a Effingham line this afternoon. Elsewhere am
expecting dry weather through the balance of the day. High
temperatures will top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A few
showers will linger across the S/SE KILX into tonight before the
wave departs into the Ohio River Valley. Low temperatures will
bottom out in the lower to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Main weather concern in the extended is the potential for heavy
snow across the far N CWA Friday into Saturday morning. 00z Mar 23
models remain in very good agreement concerning the track of a
surface low from Kansas Friday evening into western Kentucky by
Saturday evening. Strong isentropic lift will develop along/north
of the low track, particularly on the 295k surface...with time-
height cross sections indicating the strongest deep-layer omega
occurring from 03z Sat through 15z Sat. Forecast soundings show
the precip initially in the form of rain late Friday afternoon
into early Friday evening, with precip mixing with and/or changing
to snow across the far north Friday night into Saturday morning.
It appears there will be a sharp southern cut-off to the
snow...with most of the significant accumulation taking place
along/north of a Hoopeston line. Much
of Stark, Marshall, and Woodford counties could potentially
receive in excess of 6 inches of heavy, wet will be
issuing a Winter Storm Watch for those counties. Further south,
mostly rain will occur with perhaps a brief change over to snow
Saturday afternoon/evening as colder air filters southward. May
even see a few thunderstorms overnight Friday night into Saturday
morning across the southern half of the CWA as MUCAPE values climb
over 100J/kg.

Once this system exits the region, a period of dry weather will be
on tap for Sunday into Monday before the next system spreads rain
back into the area Monday night through Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 12z TAF period.
Skies will initially be clear early this morning, then increasing
mid-level clouds will be noted from west to east between 17z and
20z. A weak upper disturbance will pass southwest of the area this
afternoon and evening, coming close enough to warrant VCSH at KSPI
from 22z to 07z. Winds will be light and variable.


Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
afternoon for ILZ028-030-031.



LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.