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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260956
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
556 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer temperatures this weekend with highs around 80.

- Periodic chances for rain and a few storms, particularly tonight
  and Monday.

- The risk of severe weather is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Dramatic warmup to summerlike conditions this period as heights
build across the ern US downstream of deep wrn troughing. Lead arc
of storms through ern KS/far wrn MO will fester newd into wrn zones
by late aftn yet expected to decay with ewd extent as they outrun
favorable low level moisture axis displaced west of here. That
calculus changes tonight as flow veers swrly and ramps to
50kts at H85 as more substantial theta-e ridge overspreads the area.
Most cams develop at least sct storms which may linger into Sat
morning before dissipating as LLJ weakens. Rest of the weekend looks
mainly dry outside some low end potential for storms within low
level confluence zone nw half late Sat aftn-early evening,
commensurate with general decent instability axis that most models
develop and basis for the DY2 marginal severe risk.

Thereafter deep swrn US parent low lifts bodily out through the
upper midwest Mon and orphans its sfc frontal zone ahead of next sys
progressing quickly ewd into the nrn Rockies. This sys will spread
frontal based rains to the area later Tue followed by yet another
more vigorous/developed sys through the upper midwest late Thu.
Temps generally well above normal but do look to cool down again by
DY8 (FRI).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Minimal changes were needed to the TAFs from the
previous cycle. VFR conditions will dominate through 21Z thanks
to high pressure. Between 21Z and 00Z tonight, ceilings quickly
drop to MVFR as clouds move in ahead of our next weather
system. A warm front will begin to surge north through Indiana
late in afternoon, as showers start to take shape near after 00Z
Saturday especially at KSBN. Rain is mostly likely late Friday
into early Saturday morning, although showers (and a few
embedded storms too) will remain widely scattered. Any showers
that develop before 00Z Saturday are unlikely to reach the
surface. In addition, winds will become increasing gusty during
the afternoon/evening today, with gusts up to 20-25 knots
possible in the 00-12Z Saturday timeframe. Just beyond this TAF
period, another bout of gusty winds will ensue Saturday
afternoon with gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-017-
     018-025>027-116-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Johnson