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000
FXUS64 KJAN 201935
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
235 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow: Widespread showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will continue for a majority of the forecast area
through early Sunday afternoon. A Marginal risk for isolated severe
storms exists for this evening for areas along and south the Hwy-84
corridor and east of I-55 as better moisture, instability and wind
shear will exist creating a more favorable storm environment that
could see possible storm training this afternoon and evening.
Furthermore clearing in cloud cover has resulted in higher
temperatures than previously forecast in the Pine Belt leading to
excess heating that could aid in storm development. Thus, isolated
severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and heavy downpours will be possible through 8 PM this evening.
Additionally a limited flash flooding threat exists until Sunday
morning as storms continue to train across the same areas leading to
possible rainfall accumulation rates between 1-3 inches. This will
lead to possible localized flash flooding, especially in low-lying,
urban and poor drainage areas. Rainfall amounts will also result in
further river rises and additional river warnings. Over the coarse
of tomorrow a shortwave trough will push through our area, clearing
out rain chances as cooler drier air moves into our area./KP/

Sunday night through Friday: Colder than normal and dry to start the
period. In fact, Monday morning will be the coolest morning of the
forecast period.

Come Sunday evening an upper level shortwave trough will be swinging
through our region and helping to drop a >1024mb high into our CWA
from the northwest. This surge of cooler and drier air will send
temperatures into the low to mid 40s by sunrise Monday. A few spots
in the northeast may dip into the upper 30s. The surface high will
become centered over our CWA Monday while we maintain northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the shortwave trough. This will help maintain
cooler than normal temperatures for afternoon highs in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Normal highs run in the upper 70s to near 80F. The
surface high will continue shifting east Tuesday and Wednesday while
a weak cold front tries to drop into our CWA from the north. Wl see
a warming trend and a gradual increase in low level moisture through
Thursday but convection along the cold front looks to fizzle as it
approaches our CWA. Dry weather now looks to continue through
Thursday night but rain chances will increase from the northwest
Friday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. There are
timing differences on when the rain chances will begin as ridging
surface and aloft will be shifting east but trying to remain stout
across our CWA. This system is expected to result in rain chance
being confined to the northern half of the CWA through Friday night.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

MVFR/IFR categories will prevail at most TAF sites though
the forecast period. Widespread low stratus and likely mix of
showers, and isolated to scattered storms will likely keep TAF
sites in reduced category through early Sunday afternoon before
conditions improve. Isolates severe storms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts, large hail and heavy downpour will be
possible through this evening along and south the Hwy-84 corridor
and east of I-55. Northern TAF sites GLH/GTR/GWO will improve
conditions and bounce categories from MVFR/VFR throughout the
period. Winds will be northerly with possible 20kt gusts nearing
the end of the period./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       49  63  43  67 / 100  60   0   0
Meridian      47  63  42  68 / 100  80   0   0
Vicksburg     49  64  42  68 / 100  50   0   0
Hattiesburg   54  63  45  71 /  80  50   0   0
Natchez       50  64  43  68 / 100  50   0   0
Greenville    51  63  44  66 / 100  20   0   0
Greenwood     49  63  42  68 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/22/KP