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000
FXUS64 KJAN 160550
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

On going forecast is on track and only tweaked a few things.
Mainly, nudged temps up a bit across the E for overnight and
increasing high clouds, eventually some low stratus, and a decent
pressure gradient will support more of a mid 60 type temps for
MinT (63-67) with these readings more like 67 in the west to 63 in
our east. Much of the forecast area will see low stratus by
sunrise, but that should mix out by mid to late morning with a
breezy Tue on tap. /CME/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation
around a closed low centered just north of the Four Corners region
that will continue tracking east tonight then track northeast across
the Great Lakes region Tuesday night. This low pressure system will
try to drop a cold front into our northwest most zones Tuesday
evening but the ridging surface and aloft across our region will
hang tough. Although deep moisture is expected to continue
increasing over our CWA through Tuesday, the ridging surface and
aloft has led to a rather suppressed cu field this afternoon east of
the Mississippi river. As the low pressure system nears our CWA
Tuesday, a breezy southeast to south wind is expected to develop.
This will help increase moisture enough to help support the
development of a few showers and thunderstorms over our northwest
most zones by late afternoon. Although a few strong storms can`t be
ruled out, the main focus for severe storm potential looks to remain
just northwest of our CWA and wl drop mention of isolated severe
storm potential going into Tuesday evening. The weak cold front will
stall across northern Mississippi and there will be rain chances
north of Interstate 20 through Tuesday night. Our CWA south of
Interstate 20 will remain dry through the period. Otherwise, warmer
than normal temperatures are expected through the period. /22/

Wednesday through next Tuesday: The extended forecast begins with
a closed low trough digging into the Mid-West into the Ohio
Valley region, bringing a weak frontal boundary along the Hwy 82
corridor and into the Golden Triangle Region by Wednesday morning.
This frontal boundary will quickly push out of NE MS, bringing
dry conditions through the remainder of the day. By this time,
mid-level zonal flow will increase across the Lower Mississippi
Valley Region before a weak shortwave moved through Thursday
afternoon. At the lower levels, a high pressure is progged to
develop in the Gulf of Mexico, which will build weak ridging into
the CWA, allowing for shallow moisture to hang tight across the
region. This will increase the potential for isolated showers and
storms across the CWA, with the highest potential north of I-20,
where only a scattered chance (25-35%) looks to exist through the
end of the week. Temperatures will also be several degrees above
normal, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and overnight lows
in the middle 60s.

By the weekend, another stronger shortwave will move into the
region, stalling a boundary over central MS. This will allow for
more widespread, scattered showers and thunderstorms across the CWA
on Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday afternoon into the evening, the
front will push through, lowering temperatures 10-15 degrees from
the previous week. Highs on Sunday will range in the lower 60s to
lower 70s, but begin climbing into the lower 70s on Monday and lower
80s on Tuesday. Conditions will also dry out by Monday, allowing for
a calm start to the next work week. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A few southern TAF sites (HBG/PIB) will start off the TAF period
under IFR conditions due to low cloud ceilings from now through 10Z
Tuesday. Elsewhere, TAF sites will remain under VFR conditions and
ceilings with SCT/BKN cirrus continuing to spread across central
Mississippi to start off the TAF period. MVFR/IFR conditions will
begin to develop through the overnight period as clouds continue to
increase across the area between 10z-13z Tuesday. Ceilings will
start improve slightly to MVFR status a little after 14z and will
remain until 16z Tuesday. Conditions will begin to improve by 17Z
Tuesday with VFR conditions prevailing into the remainder of the
afternoon. Winds will remain to the south and will be breezy with
gusty conditions peaking between 17-23z Tuesday. A brief period of
low-level wind shear will occur at the MEI TAF site between
05-07z Wednesday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  67  82  67 /  10  10  10   0
Meridian      86  65  82  65 /   0  10  20   0
Vicksburg     85  68  84  68 /  10  20   0   0
Hattiesburg   84  65  84  66 /   0  10   0   0
Natchez       85  68  84  68 /  10  10   0   0
Greenville    83  70  84  68 /  10  40  10  10
Greenwood     83  68  83  68 /   0  40  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/CR