000
FXUS64 KJAN 250550 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A band of light showers is diminishing as it shifts slowly
southeastward across East MS this evening. This activity was
occurring along a stalling front. We can`t rule out a few more
isolated showers along this front overnight, but most areas will
remain dry. Otherwise, no forecast changes are planned this
evening. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

For the tonight period to Wednesday May 1st...the overall take on
the forecast is mostly above normal and warm for temperatures
with a focus on a couple interesting periods. The first being
Saturday for increased winds/gusts of 30-40 mph then a opportunity
for rain/storms early next week.

The near term is generally quiet with a weak front making it way
into the N sections of the forecast now and will stall later
tonight. Some low end precip chances will exist on Thursday across
the N due to the proximity of the front and a weakening wave moving
out of AR. As we wrap up the week and get into the weekend, the
pattern will favor stronger ridging to develop just to our E while a
more potent trough and stronger system moves into the Plains.

With the system impacting the Plains more on Fri-Sun, our area will
still be under the influence of mid/upper ridging. However, we will
see a tightening pressure gradient by Friday. Look for some breezy
conditions on Friday, but strong winds by Saturday with decent
potential to see wind gusts of 30-40 mph by Saturday afternoon. I
will add a graphic to highlight that threat.

Most precip/storm activity will remain to our W/NW into the weekend.
However, by later Sunday afternoon/night...we should see a weakening
ridge thus increased potential to get precip/storms into our W/NW by
this time. NBM Guidance captures the probability well and fits the
potential progression.

For Monday-Tuesday...Uncertainty is quite high to start the week as
our area will see a mid/upper trough move into and across the area.
While a signal is consistent for the trough and resulting rain/storm
chances, the specifics and details will matter and we`re very far
from getting that that. This is the time of year where convective
activity across the S Plains wreaks havoc on predictability for us.
MCS`s often develop to our W/NW and translating boundaries and
remnant MCVs set the stage for activity the following day. Global
guidance is offering such solutions, but timing, shear/cold pool
orientation are varying, thus instability and potential for any
strong/svr storms is quite variable. Best course at this time is to
follow the consensus guidance and note there`s potential for
rain/storms with some possibility for svr/heavy rains, but overall
confidence is low.

For mid-week, the signal is much better as the governing pattern
shifts to one of building heights as a ridge axis gets established.
This will bring quiet conditions, but warmer and above normal to
start May. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Around
10Z Thursday, patchy fog may development in southern MS and LA,
reducing ceilings and visibilities. As a result, MVFR/IFR flight
conditions will be possible near HBG and PIB. Any fog development is
expected to dissipate near sunrise. After 14Z Thursday, flight
conditions are expected to return to VFR. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  62  84  67 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      83  61  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     84  64  85  69 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   86  62  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       84  65  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    80  64  83  68 /  20   0   0  10
Greenwood     81  64  83  67 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/CME/SW