Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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212 FXUS62 KJAX 041705 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 105 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 847 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast remains on track as mid level trough pushing through the SE US is enhancing ongoing convection across inland SE GA with pockets of heavy rainfall just to the west of Waycross with isolated totals of 2-3 inches. The moisture associated with this trough will spread to the SE and interact with local sea breeze circulations across coastal SE GA and NE FL where scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected, where more heating well into the 80s will provide enough instability for a few strong storms with gusty winds to 40-50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. Convection should fade after sunset this evening and shift into the Atlantic Coastal Waters with partial clearing during the overnight hours and patchy/areas of fog can be expected over inland areas, especially where rainfall occurs today. && .NEAR TERM...Today and Tonight... Fog development this morning will be fairly sparse and generally shallow, as elevated southerly flow maintains a somewhat mixed boundary layer. Otherwise, a few showers continue to stream across inland southeast GA early this AM as upper level diffluence enhances downstream from an approaching shortwave just to the west. As that shortwave makes its way slowly eastward, the associated cooling aloft and moistening mid levels will offer a sufficient amount of diurnal instability this afternoon. With those ingredients in play along with the sea breezes, scattered to numerous showers are expected to develop during the mid and late afternoon hours, mainly across interior SE GA and inland NE FL west of Highway 301. Steep low level lapse rates will allow potentially strong outflow winds in the vicinity of pulsing storms. Outflow and sea breeze interaction may lead to a few strong storms this afternoon and evening. Given a fairly weak westerly steering flow, motion of storms today will be outflow driven with a tendency to slowly drift back toward the east coast as they weaken. In addition to a few strong gusts with the more robust convection, PWATs pushing toward the 90th percentile according to sounding climo will allow for localized heavy rain (which will be beneficial given the ongoing dry spell). Convective debris clouds will drift eastward tonight as convection wanes with mostly quiet conditions through the overnight hours. There will be another chance for at least patchy inland fog, particularly in locations that receive a decent amount of rain. Temps today will be modulated by cloud cover and the onshore flow which should keep most of SE GA and coastal NE FL high temp readings in the low/mid 80s while the rest of NE FL warms into the upper 80s to near 90 this afternoon. Another mild night will follow the warm afternoon with lows in the mid/upper 60s except at the coast where onshore flow will keep lows from falling below 70F. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night) Pattern of diurnal convection will continue through Sunday and Monday as a series of mid level short waves pass over the region. Shower and storm developments are expected to be largely scattered with developments becoming more numerous along the diurnal sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence. High temperatures for this period will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Predominantly dry weather through the rest of the week as high pressure ridging dominates the weather pattern. Sea breeze winds will be largely pinned to the coast by midweek as prevailing flow shifts to become more out of the southwest due to the positioning of the high pressure axis. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s as the week progresses with temps potentially reaching record seasonal levels by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Early morning convection over SE GA and abundant clouds has delayed onset of diurnal sea breeze convection which should kick off just a few hours later than usual and expect just VCSH at coastal TAF sites, while still expect TEMPO TSRA possible at GNV from 21-24Z and possible VCTS at VQQ, but otherwise less coverage than expected earlier. Convection fades after 01-02Z and mainly VFR conds through 07-09Z, then low level stratus/fog expected with MVFR conds at GNV/VQQ/JAX through sunrise, then MVFR BKN025 at all TAF sites in the morning from 12-16Z, before heating lift CIGS to VFR levels with VCSH slowly kicking off at the end of the period. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure repositions further south, shifting winds toward a southeasterly direction early this week. Winds should trend offshore toward the end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Risk will only increase to a low-end moderate level as the Atlantic sea breeze develops during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, low surf and light wind will keep risk low. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for... Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962 Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962 Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962 Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 64 88 66 / 80 40 50 20 SSI 79 70 82 69 / 20 20 40 20 JAX 85 67 87 66 / 20 20 40 10 SGJ 83 68 85 68 / 20 10 40 10 GNV 88 66 88 65 / 40 30 60 10 OCF 90 66 89 66 / 30 30 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$