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000
FXUS62 KJAX 141803
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK...
...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1023 millibars)
centered over the FL peninsula. Aloft...stout ridging prevails
over the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico), while deep
troughing continues to progress well offshore of New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states. This weather pattern was keeping a deep
and dry northwesterly flow pattern in place, with a weak shortwave
trough embedded within this flow pattern located upstream from
our area across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The
very dry and subsident air mass in place was resulting in sunny
skies area-wide as of 18Z, with temperatures rising through the
upper 70s and lower 80s at inland locations, while the inland
moving Atlantic sea breeze was keeping coastal temperatures
generally in the mid to upper 70s. Dewpoints were crashing through
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A loosening local pressure gradient will allow the Gulf and
Atlantic sea breezes to gradually progress inland this afternoon.
Otherwise, a weak shortwave trough located upstream of our region
will dive southeastward this evening, with mid and high altitude
cloudiness increasing early this evening through the overnight
hours as this feature progresses across southeast GA, reaching
the coast towards sunrise. A dry low level air mass will
otherwise remain in place, with winds decoupling at inland
locations after sunset, while a light south to southwesterly
breeze prevails overnight at coastal locations. Strong subsidence
beneath a building deep-layer ridge over our area will allow lows
to fall to the low and mid 50s at most inland locations towards
sunrise on Monday, with lows at coastal locations in the upper 50s
to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure conditions will continue into the beginning of the
week with winds shifting to become more onshore by Tuesday as
high pressure gradually moves eastward resulting in more onshore
flow and increased cloud cover. High temperatures for the
beginning of the week will be in the mid to upper 80s over inland
areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coast.
Overnight low temperatures will range within the mid 50s and lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Increased chances for showers are possible for the forecast area
towards the latter part of the week as long range forecast models
show the high pressure drifting southward with a potential for
bouts of short wave instability moving through the region for the
latter portion of the forecast period. Potential for isolated
diurnal storms to develop during this period in association with
the sea breeze. Temperatures will be well above the seasonal
average during this period with high temps expected to rise into
the lower 90s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Mid and
high altitude cloudiness will briefly increase overnight, with
this cloudiness then decreasing as it moves offshore towards
sunrise on Monday. The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will
move inland this afternoon, resulting in southeasterly surface
winds sustained around 10 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal
terminals through around 23Z, followed by winds shifting to
southerly and decreasing to 5-10 knots after sunset. Southwesterly
surface winds will develop at GNV and VQQ towards 20Z, with
speeds of 5-10 knots through late afternoon. Surface winds will
also shift to southerly at the inland terminals towards sunset,
with speeds of 5-10 knots early this evening diminishing towards
midnight. Northwesterly surface winds around 5 knots are forecast
after sunrise on Monday at the regional terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure centered directly over our local waters this evening
will slide eastward overnight and will become anchored near
Bermuda through midweek, resulting in a prevailing southerly wind
flow. Seas of 2-3 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore
through Tuesday. Evening wind surges may bring wind speeds up to
near Caution levels of 15-20 knots over the offshore waters,
especially towards midweek, and seas offshore will build slightly
to 3-4 feet beginning on Tuesday night. A series of frontal
boundaries will begin to approach our region from the northwest
beginning late on Thursday, followed by a front stalling near our
local waters next weekend, which could be accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds developing each afternoon will combine
with a persistent east-southeasterly ocean swell to create a lower
end moderate risk at all area beaches during the next several
days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A very dry air mass will continue through around midweek, with
minimum relative humidity values approaching critical thresholds
each afternoon for inland locations west of the Interstate 95
corridor through Tuesday. Light northwest to northerly transport
winds this morning will shift to west-southwesterly around 10
knots across inland portions of southeast GA, with surface and
transport winds shifting to southeasterly along the Interstate 95
corridor and northeasterly across north central FL during the
afternoon today. Lighter transport speeds today will generally
result in fair daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport
winds will shift back to northwesterly on Monday morning before
backing to southwesterly around 10 knots across inland portions of
southeast GA, while surface and transport winds become onshore
along the northeast FL coast, southeasterly across north central
FL, and southerly for coastal southeast GA during the afternoon
hours. Elevated mixing heights on Monday will result in fair to
good daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will
then shift to southeasterly on Tuesday across northeast and north
central FL, with southerly winds prevailing across southeast GA.
Breezy conditions developing to the south of Interstate 10 will
combine with elevated mixing heights to create good daytime
dispersion values at most inland locations, with fair values
generally forecast along and east of I-95.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Water levels are nearing moderate flood late this morning along
the Alapaha River near the Statenville gauge, and a new flood
warning has been issued since the gauge is expected to crest in a
moderate flood on Monday. Moderate flooding also continues
downstream along the Alapaha River near the Jennings gauge. Minor
flooding that will be occurring along lower portions of the
Suwannee River this week will also result in continued rises in
water levels along lower portions of the Santa Fe River this
week, with ongoing minor flooding rising to moderate flood levels
later this week and potentially approaching a major flood during
next weekend. Water levels along the lower Santa Fe near the gauge
at Hildreth are expected to rise above flood stage on Tuesday
night, with minor flooding then continuing during the next several
days.

Water levels are expected to crest just below a moderate flood
along the Satilla River near the gauge at Waycross tonight,
followed by water levels falling below flood stage late this week.
Moderate flooding continues upstream at the gauge above Millwood.
Minor flooding will continue during the next several days along
the lower Satilla River around the Atkinson gauge. Water levels
are near flood stage along upper portions of the Altamaha River
near the Baxley gauge, where minor flooding is forecast later
today through late this week. Water levels will crest very close
to flood stage along upper portions of the Altamaha River near the
Charlotteville gauge from late Monday night through Wednesday
before falling back below flood stage by Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, water levels have crested at minor flood along
portions of the St. Marys River near the Moniac gauge, with levels
forecast to crest just below flood stage downstream at the gauge
near Macclenny later today and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  58  82  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  54  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  57  83  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  54  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  53  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$