National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KJAX 211313
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
913 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track through today with isolated to scattered
showers becoming more widespread in the afternoon and evening
hours with developing initially scattered thunderstorms becoming
more widespread as convection moves through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A cold front across SC to central GA and southeast AL at 3 AM will
shift southeast today as a mid to upper level trough digs in across
the eastern CONUS. Plentiful moisture will push out ahead of the
front, with PWAT rising from about 1 inch to 1.5-1.6 inches. Some
light patches of rain possible in the morning which will move west
to east and may help precondition the environment. Models do show
a subsidence inversion around the 5000-10000 ft layer that may
inhibit some initial convective development, but it should gradually
erode by mid to late aftn. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and storms developing during the mid to late aftn with potential
for isolated strong storms with strong gusty winds and some hail.
The threat is pretty limited/localized and mainly over northeast
FL, aided by MLCAPE of up to 1000-1400 J/kg and bulk shear of
around 35 kt. In support of this, latest HRRR shows a couple of
mid level rotating storms this aftn in an area from the I-10
corridor to the coast and southward to a Gainesville to St
Augustine line. So, it`s plausible for strong gusty winds and at
least some small hail in a stronger storm.

Expect breezy west-southwest winds today ahead of the front, reaching
near 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 to near 35 mph at times, mainly
across northeast FL. Max temps today will not be as high as prior
days, with mid/upper 80s mainly over northeast FL and mid 70s to
around 80 across southeast GA.

Tonight, cold front expected to lay across coastal northeast FL to
around Gainesville and Trenton mid evening, with at least scattered
convection along it as it continues to translate southward. Wind
shift to the north follows the front, with cloudy skies continuing
much of the night and cooler temps with lows mainly in the 50s
overnight. Weak isolated showers should be mainly confined to the
coastal areas toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

By Monday evening, the front will be over south Florida, with some
lingering rain and thunderstorms possible over the eastern zones
Monday during the day, by sunset all convection will likely be
offshore. Much cooler temperatures are expected Monday, with highs
only reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s across SE GA and NE FL.
Tuesday will warm up slightly with clear skies and onshore winds
climbing high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s inland, and
lower 70s along the east coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

No precipitation in sight during this period as high pressure
builds overhead and dry weather moves in behind the cold front
passage earlier in the week. Another cold front will move through
from the north mid to late week, however conditions will be too
dry for any rain. High temperatures will generally be in the lower
to mid 80s each day inland, with the coast being slightly cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Patchy fog and IFR ceilings this morning will clear out by late
morning followed by VFR conditions through the early afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will build in the afternoon and evening
hours in association with the approaching cold front with ceilings
returning to IFR levels and then lifting by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Offshore flow continues today while a cold front will move into the
deep into southeast states. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
later this afternoon and into the evening hours with gusty winds
possible. The front will move into the southeast GA waters late
this afternoon and move through rest of the area waters tonight.
Have introduced a small craft advisory beginning for offshore
waters Monday morning and continues into Tuesday. May need a small
craft advisory for the nearshore waters as well but due to less
confidence will defer to later forecasts for raising the headline.
Winds will begin to diminish Tuesday to Wednesday as high pressure
moves into the region. Another front will move into the area
waters by Thursday.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk of rip currents for northeast
FL beaches again today with surf up to 2 to near 3 ft based on swells
of 2 ft at 11 seconds. Increased threat of rip currents and long
shore currents expected Monday due to the gusty northerly winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Breezy southwesterly winds and high mixing heights today will
allow for high dispersion values area-wide, with very high values
over portions of NE FL. Overnight dispersion values will also be
high, and again on Monday there will be patchy high dispersion
values over SE GA and the Suwannee valley. MinRH will drop Monday
into Tuesday as a cold front passes, leaving dry air in it`s wake
as winds shift northeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  54  69  47 /  80  20  10   0
SSI  84  56  66  56 /  80  50  20   0
JAX  87  56  67  52 /  80  60  30   0
SGJ  88  60  68  58 /  50  70  40   0
GNV  85  57  71  50 /  60  60  20   0
OCF  85  60  73  52 /  50  60  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$