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000
FXUS63 KJKL 172036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
436 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dying cold front move into the area tonight and could bring a
  few showers/thunderstorms to our northeastern counties.

- A cold front with more momentum will approach Thursday night and
  pass through on Friday, presenting at least a likelihood (>= 60%
  chance) of showers/thunderstorms.

- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will arrive behind the
  second cold front and carry through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 436 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024

A cold front was situated over western OH and southern IN late
today, with thunderstorms occurring along/ahead of the front in
OH. The front`s upper level support is moving east across the
Great Lakes, north of our area, and the front will lose momentum
and definition as it arrives in KY tonight. Forecast soundings
show some potential for a cap to be broken this evening, but model
QPFs and MOS POPs are low. Have used just a 20 percent POP in our
far northeastern counties.

Ridging at the surface and aloft then moves in from the west
overnight and passes to our east on Thursday, resulting in fair
wx.

An upper low traveling east over southern Canada will support
another cold front which will approach us from the west northwest
late Thursday night, with weak low pressure traveling along the
front as it approaches. Models agree on showers and possibly
thunderstorms arriving ahead of the front late Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 436 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024

An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024

Scattered showers and areas of MVFR ceilings were present over
south central and southeast KY at the start of the period.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevailed. The showers will end and
prevailing VFR conditions are forecast area wide by early this
evening. There is a small potential for thunderstorms to develop
early this evening near and northeast of a line from KSYM to
KPBX, and this would result in localized sub-VFR conditions.
Should this activity develop, it would depart and leave dry
weather overnight. Localized vally fog can`t be ruled out tonight
into early Thursday, but it`s not expected to affect TAF sites.

Southwest winds will gust 20-30 mph this afternoon, but will
diminish this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL