Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
338 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures are forecast for some of the deeper
  valleys tonight.

- A critically dry air mass and an increase in southeast downslope
  winds will result in increased fire danger Monday.

- Warmer conditions return for Monday before another round of
  widespread rainfall Tuesday and Tuesday night. A few
  thunderstorms will be possible across the area Tuesday and
  Tuesday evening, mainly near and west of Interstate 75.

- Temperatures cool within a few degrees of normal from Tuesday to
  the end of next week, with the threat for sub-freezing
  temperatures returning for many valley locations on Wednesday
  and Thursday nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2024

The short term period will be characterized by high pressure
remaining to our northeast while a major storm system spins up
across the Central US. The result will be rain-free conditions and a
pronounced warm-up, but also increasing fire weather concerns
tonight and especially Monday as southeasterly downslope winds
increase with an increasing pressure gradient.

A dry air mass is evident over the region early this morning,
especially ridgetops, with light northeasterly flow from high
pressure to our north and northeast. Warm advection today with sunny
skies will allow for highs to reach the mid-50s north to mid-60s
south, with only a little bit of shading from increasing mid- and
high-level clouds during the afternoon hours.

Surface high pressure wedges down the eastern side of the
Appalachians at the same time as a low pressure deepens over the
Central Plains tonight. This results in an increased southeasterly
winds tonight as the pressure gradient becomes maximized over the
immediate western slopes of the southern Appalachians. For
temperatures, this will mean mild and very dry conditions with poor
humidity recovery over higher terrain and ridgetops, with better but
still relatively modest humidity recovery in the broader valleys.
This will result in elevated fire weather conditions that will only
worsen heading into the day Monday. Lows tonight/Monday morning will
only fall into the lower to mid 40s on ridgetops with near-freezing
temperatures in the deeper sheltered valleys. It should be noted
that if cloud cover is a bit thicker than forecast the ridge/valley
temperature difference may not be as high as currently forecast.

Critically dry conditions Monday along with the increase in
southeast winds will result in highly elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions, with widespread minimum RH values well into
the teens expected. Southeasterly sustained winds will remain below
levels needed for fire weather warnings but gusts in the 20s will
result in increased fire danger. Given the extremely dry lower and
mid-levels forecasted by models as well as the southeasterly
downslope winds, the deterministic NBM forecast was raised by 2 to 4
degrees to result in widespread 70s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2024

The forecast area will be under the regime of WAA as a strong LLJ
gradually shifts east through the day Monday. Warmer temperatures
are forecast to be advected into the region with highs topping out
in the low to mid-70s to start the period. The strong southwesterly
flow and LLJ are associated with a longwave trough and strong
jetstreak which is forecast to track through the western CONUS and
toward the CWA. The approaching surface low will push a warm front
through the area on Monday with a cold front forecast to move
through the region Tuesday afternoon. Widespread severe weather
isn`t expected with this front as SBCAPE is lacking; also relatively
low dewpoints are in place. However, sufficient shear and some
directional shear are forecast to exist per LREF mean for storm
organization. Along with a few thunderstorms, pretty decent
rainfall is forecast with this front as QPF upwards of an inch are
possible along the I-75 corridor with decreasing amounts as one
moves further east. In recent model runs, QPF has come down a
little bit but still looking like the best rainfall is going to be
along the I-75 corridor.

High pressure builds back into the region behind the exiting front
with temperatures moderating back to seasonal norms. Highs will
hover around the upper-50 to lower-60s range with overnight lows in
the mid-30s. Another warm-up is forecast toward the end of the
period as a weak disturbance looks to clip the region toward the end
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period under clear skies
tonight and Sunday morning giving way to increasing mid- and
high-level cloud cover during the afternoon through the remainder
of the TAF period. Light northeast winds 10 kts or less will
become more easterly with time and then southeasterly and light by
the end of the TAF period, with deeper valley locations remaining
light and variable in the overnight and morning periods.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC


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