Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281154 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
754 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain seasonably cool through Friday
  morning, with one more night of near or sub-freezing
  temperatures and frost returning for most valley areas late
  tonight.

- A warming trend then ensues Friday afternoon and continues
  through early next week.

- PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest this weekend and
  continue to ramp up through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024

The forecast remains on track early this morning. Mainly freshened
the hourly temperature curve through the rest of this morning,
incorporating the latest trends in the observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024

The latest upper level map features troughing aligned from the
Great Lakes region through the northern Gulf of Mexico, with
ridging aligned near the Rockies, while another storm system rolls
towards the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a frontal boundary
is stalled near the Appalachians, while high pressure extends
from the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley. Some high clouds
are streaming aloft across eastern Kentucky, with lightening winds
and a cooler air mass in place allowing for temperatures as cool
as the lower 30s currently near the Bluegrass region as well as
west of I-75.

The trough currently aligned near the Mississippi Valley will work
east today, crossing the central and southern Appalachians this
afternoon. One final push of short wave energy will move
southeast from the Great Lakes through portions of the Upper Ohio
Valley and New England tonight into early Friday morning, brushing
our north with some mid-level clouds for a time. Otherwise,
heights will then rebound across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
through the rest of Friday, as a modest ridge axis moves in from
the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure will slide
southeast with time, with the center becoming more confined to the
Deep South by early Friday, and then near Florida by the end of
the day.

Dry weather will be maintained across the area through the short
term, with temperatures seasonably cooler through Friday morning,
before warm air advection kicks in through Friday afternoon, with
temperatures returning to above normal. High clouds will continue
to be seen through this morning, before these exit from west to
east this afternoon. Model MOS guidance and forecast soundings
continue to support the 10th percentile or slightly less of the
blended guidance for the dew points this afternoon. The surface
high will be more centered to our south tonight, with somewhat of
a pressure gradient set up across the north. This, combined with
the aforementioned mid-level clouds that brush our northern
counties, may temper the lows a tad, with valleys reaching into
the low to mid 30s, while ridges stay in the lower 40s. Southern
valleys should be a touch colder, with isolated places getting
down to around 30 degrees. Readings will make a run for a 40
degree diurnal recovery in some places on Friday, as breezier
west southwest winds bring in warmer air, along with mostly clear
skies in place. Dew points will modify somewhat, but deeper mixing
should yield values closer to the 10th percentile of the blended
guidance once again. Consequently, also stayed closer to the
75th percentile for the high temperatures, with a few spots
touching the 70 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024

The large scale upper level pattern in the extended will begin
with ridging in place at the surface across the Gulf of Mexico and
southeastern CONUS, extending northward into the Tennessee and
southern Ohio Valleys, with ridging aloft in place from the
Tennessee Valley northward into the Great Lakes and south central
Canada. A large and well developed trough should be exiting the
northeastern CONUS and heading out to sea, while another strong
system moves onshore along the west coast and Pacific Northwest.
This pattern will shift eastward with time and will feature a fast
moving shortwave moving out of the northern Plains and into Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley regions over the weekend. This system will
bring the first rain chances to eastern Kentucky late Friday night
into early Saturday morning. A weak cold front associated with the
shortwave will sink slowly southward and into our area Saturday
night, and will bring not only shower chances, but some thunder
chances as well. The surface front is then forecast to drift
northward and southward over our area heading into the first of
next week, with persistent rain chances accompanying it as is does
so.

Another stronger system is then expected to move in from the
northwest Monday night and Tuesday, and could bring widespread
rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to the area as it moves
through. Increasing southerly flow south and east of the two
aforementioned low pressure systems and cold fronts will transport
warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. This will lead to extremely warm temperatures that could
easily top out in the 70s for area for several days. The warmest
readings are on tap for Sunday and Monday, as southerly to
southwesterly winds strengthen ahead of the incoming systems, and
before the more widespread precipitation moves in. We should still
see highs in the lower 70s on Saturday and Tuesday, in spite of
any rain and clouds that move in. Once the second weather system,
and its surface cold front, move through the area on Wednesday, we
should see a big drop in temperatures, and much cooler air spills
in behind the departing front. In fact, we may see highs only
reaching the upper 50s on Wednesday, as winds shift to the west
and northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Nightly lows should be
mild on average, with nightly mins ranging from the 50s and lower
60s on the warmest nights, and falling to the upper 30s to 40s on
the coolest nights.

The primary weather concerns in the extended will be the potential
for thunderstorms next Monday and especially Tuesday, as a cold
front moves through. The latest forecast soundings are showing
some instability present as the front moves through the first of
next week, Monday night and Tuesday in particular, so
thunderstorms seem like a good bet during that time. However, with
the models still having a bit of trouble resolving the amount of
moisture and instability that will be present the first of next
week, storm strength and precipitation amounts will remain
uncertain for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some patchy IFR
fog seen in the deeper river valleys will burn off through 13z.
High clouds will gradually thin from west to east through the rest
of this morning, with a few mid-level clouds then invading from
the north overnight. North winds of around 5 kts will increase to
5 to 10 kts and back to the northwest from late this morning
through this afternoon. Winds will become west southwest at
around 5 kts or less after dusk.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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